Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Riley, Austin
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team ATL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.344 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.294
0.307
0.322
0.336
0.349
wOBA
0.293
0.310
0.330
0.349
0.367
ISO
0.157
0.172
0.189
0.206
0.221
K%
23.6%
24.9%
26.5%
28.0%
29.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.9%
39
Barrel%7.2%
77
Bat speed73.6
92
Exit velocity91.1
85
Hard-hit%45.7%
74
K%27.9%
22
xBA0.319
44
xSLG0.588
71
xwOBA0.303
42
-35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
23
Arm Strength87.2 · 3B
65
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B
9
Range Runs-2.4 · 3B
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · 3B
75
Sprint Speed27.8 · 3B
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.3% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8% · rebadged research
43
Correct Decisions63.3% · rebadged research
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.254 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256 · validated thin sample
93
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
56
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
43
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated
11
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
160 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.040 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.014 |
| Sample | 265 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 484 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.343 | 0.297 to 0.382 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.203 | 0.143 to 0.265 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 8.6% | 6.2% to 10.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 49.6% | 43.9% to 56.8% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 25.2% | 20.8% to 30.4% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 5.2% to 10.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.320 | 0.270 to 0.362 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
873 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |
vs RHP
2922 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |