Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026

Larnach, Trevor

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.332 xwOBA
Range
0.300 to 0.365
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Balanced regular Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
55
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
60
Defense4 metrics
36
Speed2 metrics
41
Plate skills10 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
xwOBA preseason0.330
xwOBA current pace0.330
xwOBA rolling p500.330
Observed weight66%
xwOBA
0.308 0.318 0.330 0.342 0.352
wOBA
0.333 0.347 0.363 0.378 0.393
ISO
0.144 0.156 0.169 0.182 0.194
K%
17.0% 18.2% 19.5% 20.9% 22.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
58
Exit velocity87.4
46
Hard-hit%36.8%
43 -31 vs proj
xBA0.326
58
xSLG0.497
49
xwOBA0.330
77
BB%10.4%
72
Bat speed70.1
58
K%17.5%
80 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.1 · LF
91
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
31
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · LF
5
Range Runs-3.1 · LF
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · LF
52
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
30
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-02
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
28
Correct Decisions64.5% · rebadged research
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · borderline
8
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
10
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
48
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358 · validated
20
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
39
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Larnach, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.330 2026-08-22: 0.3342026-08-23: 0.3342026-08-24: 0.3342026-08-25: 0.3282026-08-26: 0.3282026-08-27: 0.3302026-08-28: 0.3302026-08-29: 0.3302026-08-30: 0.3322026-08-31: 0.3312026-09-01: 0.3282026-09-02: 0.330 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Trevor Larnach's production (83) outpaces the tools grade (80) by 2 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

186 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Larnach, Trevor · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 7% of plotted batted ballsPull 7%Center field third: 74% of plotted batted ballsCenter 74%Right field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsOppo 19% LF 339 CF 403 RF 328 2026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA -1.02026-03-20 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 72.1 / LA 49.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 25.02026-03-22 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 73.3 / LA 19.02026-03-22 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 44.02026-03-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA -15.02026-03-23 · fielders choice · FC · ground_ball · EV 58.5 / LA 13.02026-03-23 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 27.02026-03-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 18.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 54.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA -22.02026-03-29 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 77.5 / LA 19.02026-03-29 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -25.02026-03-30 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 61.3 / LA 5.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.6 / LA 10.02026-04-03 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 23.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 26.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 16.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · popup · EV 58.5 / LA 73.02026-04-06 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 84.2 / LA 28.02026-04-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA -2.02026-04-06 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 75.4 / LA 18.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 46.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -22.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 34.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 61.0 / LA -72.02026-04-11 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 25.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 85.4 / LA 6.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 27.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 11.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 34.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 21.02026-04-14 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 13.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 97.4 / LA 8.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -20.02026-04-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 12.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · popup · EV 91.9 / LA 58.02026-04-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.3 / LA 22.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 83.5 / LA 50.02026-04-22 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 87.5 / LA 11.02026-04-23 · field error · CU · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA -36.02026-04-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 7.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.9 / LA -31.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.6 / LA -8.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA 2.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.7 / LA -25.02026-04-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.7 / LA 18.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.7 / LA 69.02026-04-26 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 61.5 / LA -52.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · popup · EV 77.2 / LA 54.02026-04-27 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 31.02026-04-27 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -32.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA -5.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA -5.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 46.02026-04-28 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 20.02026-04-29 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -8.02026-04-29 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 77.6 / LA 15.02026-04-29 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 66.3 / LA 9.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 44.02026-05-02 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 8.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 0.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 106.3 / LA -25.02026-05-03 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 5.02026-05-03 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 34.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 85.4 / LA 24.02026-05-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA -11.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 23.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 56.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -63.02026-05-05 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 22.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.1 / LA 44.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA 1.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.6 / LA -73.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 2.02026-05-07 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 26.1 / LA -49.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 7.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.0 / LA 81.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 66.5 / LA 69.02026-05-09 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -16.02026-05-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 2.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 31.02026-05-10 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 4.02026-05-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA 8.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -31.02026-05-16 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 23.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · popup · EV 74.1 / LA 66.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -6.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 63.8 / LA 30.02026-05-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.2 / LA -17.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -11.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 76.7 / LA 12.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · popup · EV 71.0 / LA 62.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.4 / LA 66.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -36.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA -9.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.3 / LA 35.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 14.02026-05-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 67.2 / LA 21.02026-05-23 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 16.02026-05-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.5 / LA 14.02026-05-23 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 108.5 / LA 11.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 52.02026-05-24 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 1.02026-05-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 9.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -13.02026-05-26 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.1 / LA 25.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -50.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 20.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 36.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 29.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA -34.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 39.02026-06-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -35.02026-06-01 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 74.5 / LA 19.02026-06-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 9.02026-06-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.1 / LA 58.02026-06-07 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 67.5 / LA 29.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 81.6 / LA 31.02026-06-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 9.02026-06-18 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA -2.02026-06-18 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 19.02026-06-18 · single · CU · fly_ball · EV 66.1 / LA 28.02026-06-18 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 24.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 69.7 / LA 60.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -11.02026-06-20 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -13.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 32.02026-06-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 81.5 / LA 17.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.8 / LA -12.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.2 / LA -60.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 64.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 13.02026-06-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 3.02026-06-26 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA -5.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 41.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -12.02026-07-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -5.02026-07-01 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 12.02026-07-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 25.02026-07-01 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 23.02026-07-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 38.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 20.02026-07-31 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -12.02026-08-02 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 22.02026-08-02 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -41.02026-08-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -17.02026-08-04 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 97.3 / LA 22.02026-08-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA -2.02026-08-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 4.02026-08-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 43.02026-08-08 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 24.02026-08-08 · field out · FC · popup · EV 83.3 / LA 72.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.5 / LA 19.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 55.0 / LA 0.02026-08-11 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -15.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA -1.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 80.4 / LA 28.02026-08-13 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 14.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 27.02026-08-13 · double play · SI · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 3.02026-08-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 73.5 / LA 22.02026-08-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 57.02026-08-16 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 69.2 / LA 35.02026-08-16 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 1.02026-08-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.0 / LA 21.02026-08-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -21.02026-08-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -20.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 81.4 / LA 70.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.0 / LA 43.02026-08-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.9 / LA -31.02026-08-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 31.02026-08-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 8.02026-08-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 28.02026-08-26 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -14.02026-08-26 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 109.9 / LA 18.02026-08-29 · field out · SI · popup · EV 67.8 / LA 56.02026-08-29 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 9.02026-08-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -9.02026-08-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.5 / LA 38.02026-08-30 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 9.02026-08-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 37.02026-08-31 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA -14.02026-09-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 2.02026-09-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 34.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Larnach, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 30%30%Whiff: 26%26%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 74%74%Hard hit: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.278 vs 0.229 xwOBA split).
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.001
wOBA Δ+0.032
Sample424 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances534----
Home Runs18----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3320.300 to 0.365+/- 0.032
ISO0.1900.145 to 0.262+/- 0.059
Barrel%6.2%4.1% to 7.9%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%43.6%41.3% to 51.2%+/- 5.0%
K%21.3%17.5% to 29.6%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.4%7.3% to 12.3%+/- 2.5%
BABIP0.2910.245 to 0.336+/- 0.045
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

326 career PA

xwOBA0.229
K%21.4%
BB%6.1%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHP

1418 career PA

xwOBA0.278
K%18.3%
BB%8.4%
Barrel5.5%