Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Tucker, Kyle
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team LAD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.378 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.339 |
| Observed weight | 72% |
xwOBA
0.317
0.328
0.339
0.351
0.362
wOBA
0.305
0.317
0.330
0.344
0.356
ISO
0.134
0.144
0.156
0.167
0.178
K%
15.1%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
36
-45 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
60
Hard-hit%37.1%
45
-26 vs proj
xBA0.319
51
xSLG0.474
39
xwOBA0.324
72
-26 vs proj
BB%12.3%
88
Bat speed68.8
38
K%17.8%
78
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · RF
62
Arm Strength92.5 · RF
43
Outs Above Avg-9.0 · RF
0
Range Runs-7.9 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · RF
32
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
94
Sprint Speed26.6 · RF
28
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5% · rebadged research
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.6% · rebadged research
94
Correct Decisions73.5% · rebadged research
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
19
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
42
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
59
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
53
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
251 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.050 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.044 |
| Sample | 552 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 555 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.374 | 0.329 to 0.419 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.206 | 0.168 to 0.290 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.2% to 10.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.8% | 36.9% to 50.1% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 15.9% | 12.6% to 21.0% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 13.1% | 11.0% to 16.4% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.274 | 0.243 to 0.314 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
1234 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.304 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 10.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |
vs RHP
2295 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.325 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 13.0% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |