Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Bart, Joey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.288 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.256 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 25% |
xwOBA
0.247
0.262
0.280
0.297
0.312
wOBA
0.293
0.327
0.365
0.402
0.436
ISO
0.071
0.094
0.119
0.144
0.166
K%
23.4%
25.7%
28.3%
30.8%
33.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%2.7%
2
-47 vs proj
Barrel%4.0%
35
Bat speed73.6
92
Exit velocity86.1
24
Hard-hit%35.7%
31
K%37.3%
1
-20 vs proj
xBA0.325
54
xSLG0.543
61
xwOBA0.256
9
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.2 · C
57
Catcher Throwing0.1 · C
41
Framing Runs-0.9 · C
34
Pop Time1.9 · C
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.6 · C
30
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions62.7% · rebadged research
19
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
21
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
26
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
87
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
75
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
42 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.072 |
| Sample | 75 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 406 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.260 to 0.336 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.125 | 0.089 to 0.212 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 3.1% to 7.3% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.3% | 32.8% to 45.5% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 28.0% | 19.4% to 31.4% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 6.7% to 11.8% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.258 to 0.368 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
363 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.245 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 7.8% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
846 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.226 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |