Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Raleigh, Cal

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.355 xwOBA
Range
0.297 to 0.394
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Impact slugger Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
62
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
62
Defense4 metrics
35
Speed1 metrics
15
Plate skills10 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
xwOBA preseason0.339
xwOBA current pace0.308
xwOBA rolling p500.318
Observed weight67%
xwOBA
0.294 0.305 0.318 0.331 0.343
wOBA
0.273 0.286 0.300 0.315 0.328
ISO
0.177 0.191 0.207 0.223 0.237
K%
27.5% 28.7% 30.1% 31.4% 32.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
87
Exit velocity89.8
74
Hard-hit%39.1%
53 -37 vs proj
xBA0.290
21
xSLG0.619
84
xwOBA0.308
54 -37 vs proj
BB%12.8%
90
Bat speed72.6
86
K%31.5%
12 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs3.3 · C
99
Catcher Throwing-2.6 · C
6
Framing Runs-2.2 · C
23
Pop Time2.0 · C
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
15
SB Success Rate66.7% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-02
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.5% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
30
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301 · validated
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
44
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
80
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
21
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
59
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated
8
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Raleigh, Cal · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.308 2026-08-22: 0.2902026-08-23: 0.2902026-08-24: 0.2902026-08-25: 0.3022026-08-26: 0.3022026-08-27: 0.3042026-08-28: 0.3042026-08-29: 0.3042026-08-30: 0.3102026-08-31: 0.3102026-09-01: 0.3092026-09-02: 0.308 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Cal Raleigh's tools (77) outpace production (74) by 4 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Chase Rate Problem.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

174 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Raleigh, Cal · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsPull 20%Center field third: 61% of plotted batted ballsCenter 61%Right field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsOppo 20% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-03-19 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 109.4 / LA 30.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 56.02026-03-21 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 77.2 / LA 4.02026-03-21 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA 14.02026-03-21 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 64.02026-03-22 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.3 / LA -26.02026-03-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 80.8 / LA 30.02026-03-23 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 13.02026-03-23 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 114.2 / LA 18.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 72.2 / LA 42.02026-03-28 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 84.8 / LA 15.02026-03-29 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 70.9 / LA -23.02026-03-29 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 52.02026-03-29 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 46.0 / LA -44.02026-03-30 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 6.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 80.9 / LA 35.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 50.7 / LA -64.02026-04-01 · field out · FC · popup · EV 83.5 / LA 73.02026-04-01 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 84.0 / LA 14.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · popup · EV 57.4 / LA 49.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 51.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.6 / LA 62.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 28.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 28.02026-04-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -8.02026-04-05 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 72.7 / LA 46.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 41.8 / LA -79.02026-04-06 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 29.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 34.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 3.02026-04-07 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 83.7 / LA 60.02026-04-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 63.02026-04-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 70.2 / LA 24.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.8 / LA 78.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 6.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · popup · EV 99.4 / LA 67.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 27.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.5 / LA 76.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 37.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 72.1 / LA 9.02026-04-11 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 29.02026-04-11 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 29.02026-04-11 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.1 / LA 31.02026-04-11 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 0.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 30.02026-04-12 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 8.02026-04-13 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 71.1 / LA 27.02026-04-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 58.6 / LA -57.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 41.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.3 / LA 44.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 33.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 79.7 / LA 28.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 39.02026-04-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 41.0 / LA -46.02026-04-15 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 107.6 / LA 21.02026-04-16 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 15.02026-04-16 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 12.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 38.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.0 / LA 7.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 94.7 / LA 69.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 31.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -6.02026-04-18 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 32.02026-04-18 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 42.02026-04-19 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.5 / LA 52.02026-04-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -13.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 15.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.8 / LA -55.02026-04-20 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 49.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 77.0 / LA 42.02026-04-20 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 32.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.5 / LA 60.02026-04-21 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 4.02026-04-21 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 37.02026-04-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 17.02026-04-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 27.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 41.02026-04-24 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 26.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 59.02026-04-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 11.02026-04-25 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.5 / LA 2.02026-04-25 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -36.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -17.02026-04-26 · field out · CU · popup · EV 78.4 / LA 67.02026-04-26 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 109.8 / LA 25.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -16.02026-04-27 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 109.9 / LA 29.02026-04-27 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 18.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.6 / LA 70.02026-04-28 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 36.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 49.02026-04-29 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -74.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 42.02026-04-29 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 33.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -11.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.3 / LA 62.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 65.9 / LA 3.02026-05-06 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 10.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 29.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 39.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.2 / LA 72.02026-05-08 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -34.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 49.02026-05-09 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -7.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 54.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 43.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 22.02026-05-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 45.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 46.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 33.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 12.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 17.02026-05-13 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -3.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 46.02026-06-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -15.02026-06-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 19.02026-06-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 20.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.7 / LA 71.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 43.02026-06-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 5.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.6 / LA 75.02026-07-31 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 19.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 50.02026-07-31 · field out · FC · popup · EV 67.7 / LA 78.02026-08-02 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 29.02026-08-02 · field out · FC · popup · EV 93.1 / LA 73.02026-08-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 34.02026-08-02 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 83.5 / LA 34.02026-08-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 18.02026-08-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA -37.02026-08-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 30.02026-08-07 · field out · SL · popup · EV 93.0 / LA 66.02026-08-07 · field out · SI · popup · EV 94.8 / LA 71.02026-08-08 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -25.02026-08-08 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 33.02026-08-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 2.02026-08-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 50.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · popup · EV 65.8 / LA 45.02026-08-13 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 78.7 / LA 12.02026-08-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 50.02026-08-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 62.02026-08-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 44.02026-08-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 61.02026-08-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 54.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.6 / LA 72.02026-08-16 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 45.02026-08-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 50.02026-08-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 54.02026-08-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 1.02026-08-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 94.4 / LA 63.02026-08-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 9.02026-08-21 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 107.2 / LA 25.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.7 / LA 64.02026-08-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -6.02026-08-22 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 0.02026-08-23 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 15.02026-08-23 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA -30.02026-08-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 61.8 / LA -20.02026-08-24 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 26.02026-08-24 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 28.02026-08-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 39.02026-08-29 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 88.4 / LA 15.02026-08-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.7 / LA 24.02026-08-30 · double · CU · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 42.02026-08-30 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 36.02026-08-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 4.02026-08-31 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 36.02026-08-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 51.02026-08-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 21.02026-09-01 · field out · SL · popup · EV 82.8 / LA 79.02026-09-01 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 29.02026-09-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -4.02026-09-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 46.7 / LA -81.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Raleigh, Cal · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 74.7 mph Hard swing rate 49% Whiff / swing 30% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Raleigh, Cal · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 43%43%Chase: 36%36%Whiff: 30%30%Zone contact: 79%79%Contact: 70%70%Hard hit: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.047
wOBA Δ-0.054
Sample454 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances658----
Home Runs43----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3550.297 to 0.394+/- 0.048
ISO0.2630.185 to 0.341+/- 0.078
Barrel%9.6%6.6% to 11.6%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%48.3%39.8% to 54.3%+/- 7.3%
K%27.0%22.1% to 32.5%+/- 5.2%
BB%12.0%9.0% to 15.2%+/- 3.1%
BABIP0.2700.213 to 0.316+/- 0.052
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

656 career PA

xwOBA0.301
K%23.6%
BB%7.5%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHP

1995 career PA

xwOBA0.302
K%24.0%
BB%11.2%
Barrel7.9%