Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Grisham, Trent
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYY
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
70
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
70
Exit velocity90.7
86
Hard-hit%45.9%
84
xBA0.310
39
xSLG0.540
62
xwOBA0.334
81
BB%12.7%
91
Bat speed69.0
42
K%18.9%
73
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · CF
66
Arm Strength94.5 · CF
57
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · CF
5
Range Runs-5.3 · CF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.4 · CF
13
SB Success Rate70.0% · CF
25
Sprint Speed26.8 · CF
32
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.7% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.0% · rebadged research
17
Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324 · validated
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
35
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332 · validated
90
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
239 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
| Sample | 519 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 539 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 23 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.338 | 0.301 to 0.378 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.179 | 0.128 to 0.260 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 7.3% | 4.7% to 9.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.1% | 38.6% to 51.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 26.0% | 21.0% to 30.6% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 12.5% | 10.2% to 16.4% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.271 | 0.206 to 0.310 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
791 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 9.7% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
vs RHP
2265 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 11.8% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |