Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Grisham, Trent
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYY
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.341 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.342 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.342 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.327
0.342
0.356
0.369
wOBA
0.304
0.322
0.343
0.364
0.382
ISO
0.138
0.155
0.173
0.192
0.208
K%
18.8%
20.2%
21.6%
23.1%
24.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%15.7%
96
Barrel%7.9%
81
Bat speed67.8
25
Exit velocity90.7
80
Hard-hit%45.3%
73
K%18.2%
73
+43 vs proj
xBA0.296
28
xSLG0.539
58
xwOBA0.342
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · CF
63
Arm Strength90.2 · CF
26
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
8
Range Runs-1.9 · CF
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · CF
4
Sprint Speed26.7 · CF
33
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 78.5% · rebadged research
98
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.2% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
28
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
79
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
43
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
153 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| Sample | 242 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 539 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 23 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.339 | 0.301 to 0.378 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.179 | 0.128 to 0.260 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 7.3% | 4.7% to 9.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.1% | 38.6% to 51.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 26.0% | 21.0% to 30.6% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 12.5% | 10.2% to 16.4% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.271 | 0.206 to 0.310 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
791 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 9.7% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
vs RHP
2265 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 11.8% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |