Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026

Lowe, Nathaniel

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.320 xwOBA
Range
0.278 to 0.370
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced regular Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.328
xwOBA current pace0.386
xwOBA rolling p500.352
Observed weight41%
xwOBA
0.318 0.334 0.352 0.370 0.386
wOBA
0.399 0.423 0.450 0.476 0.501
ISO
0.174 0.196 0.220 0.244 0.266
K%
20.7% 22.3% 24.0% 25.7% 27.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.3%
68
Barrel%9.6%
92 +36 vs proj
Bat speed72.2
82
Exit velocity89.9
69
Hard-hit%47.0%
80 +21 vs proj
K%22.4%
47
xBA0.389
93
xSLG0.743
95
xwOBA0.386
94 +35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-1.5 · 1B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · DH
18
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
19
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.374 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
59
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Lowe, Nathaniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3662026-05-19: 0.3722026-05-21: 0.3662026-05-23: 0.3712026-05-24: 0.3902026-05-25: 0.3902026-05-26: 0.3922026-05-28: 0.3902026-05-29: 0.3922026-05-30: 0.3922026-05-31: 0.3942026-06-01: 0.386 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

100 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Lowe, Nathaniel · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 67% of plotted batted ballsCenter 67%Right field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsOppo 20% LF 328 CF 404 RF 325 2026-03-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -19.02026-03-16 · home run · SL · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 22.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -13.02026-03-18 · double · SV · line_drive · EV 111.0 / LA 16.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 57.02026-03-20 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 10.02026-03-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA -7.02026-03-22 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA 7.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA -41.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -1.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -13.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA -1.02026-03-31 · double play · FF · line_drive · EV 59.4 / LA 18.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 24.02026-04-01 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 15.02026-04-04 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -24.02026-04-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 12.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.5 / LA -11.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -15.02026-04-07 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 9.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -22.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 18.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.8 / LA -5.02026-04-11 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 0.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 67.8 / LA 17.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA -22.02026-04-17 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA -2.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 24.02026-04-18 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.4 / LA 32.02026-04-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -11.02026-04-18 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 82.2 / LA 20.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.0 / LA 39.02026-04-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -1.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 38.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 112.7 / LA 29.02026-04-24 · field error · SI · ground_ball2026-04-24 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 36.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 28.02026-04-25 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 27.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-04-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.5 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 29.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 80.7 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 17.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 32.02026-04-28 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 10.02026-04-28 · field out · KC · popup · EV 73.2 / LA 74.02026-04-28 · field out · KC · ground_ball2026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 7.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 46.02026-04-29 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -3.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 25.02026-04-30 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 17.02026-04-30 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 31.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 23.02026-05-02 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 28.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 6.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 48.2 / LA 27.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 16.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -13.02026-05-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 68.1 / LA 19.02026-05-05 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 23.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -37.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -16.02026-05-06 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.1 / LA 13.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -3.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 56.0 / LA 79.02026-05-08 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.9 / LA 43.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -10.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 22.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA -38.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -10.02026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 112.2 / LA 6.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 22.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.3 / LA 70.02026-05-17 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 13.02026-05-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 14.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 21.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 7.02026-05-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA 3.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 67.5 / LA -25.02026-05-20 · double · KC · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 2.02026-05-20 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 24.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -3.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 16.02026-05-23 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 17.02026-05-23 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 26.02026-05-23 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA -22.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -3.02026-05-25 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 37.02026-05-25 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 21.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 34.02026-05-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -1.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 62.6 / LA -11.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 2.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.2 / LA 30.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Lowe, Nathaniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.286 vs 0.248 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.066
wOBA Δ+0.129
Sample156 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances574----
Home Runs17----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3200.278 to 0.370+/- 0.046
ISO0.1640.103 to 0.247+/- 0.072
Barrel%5.4%2.8% to 7.5%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%41.8%36.5% to 48.6%+/- 6.0%
K%23.4%20.7% to 30.1%+/- 4.7%
BB%10.9%8.7% to 13.7%+/- 2.5%
BABIP0.2990.265 to 0.348+/- 0.042
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1054 career PA

xwOBA0.248
K%23.5%
BB%9.5%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHP

2587 career PA

xwOBA0.286
K%20.3%
BB%10.2%
Barrel3.8%