Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026

Lowe, Nathaniel

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.317 xwOBA
Range
0.275 to 0.366
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced regular Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
75
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
71
Defense2 metrics
16
Speed1 metrics
11
Plate skills10 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
68
Exit velocity89.2
67
Hard-hit%42.2%
67
xBA0.363
89
xSLG0.597
78
xwOBA0.333
80
BB%8.8%
55
Bat speed72.8
88
K%23.3%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 1B
9
Range Runs-2.9 · 1B
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · DH
11
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions67.3% · rebadged research
62
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
43
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
0
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · insufficient sample
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
21
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Lowe, Nathaniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.333 2026-08-21: 0.3432026-08-22: 0.3432026-08-23: 0.3432026-08-24: 0.3432026-08-25: 0.3382026-08-26: 0.3382026-08-27: 0.3392026-08-28: 0.3392026-08-29: 0.3392026-08-30: 0.3352026-08-31: 0.3332026-09-01: 0.333 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

173 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Lowe, Nathaniel · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 68% of plotted batted ballsCenter 68%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 328 CF 404 RF 325 2026-03-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -19.02026-03-16 · home run · SL · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 22.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -13.02026-03-18 · double · SV · line_drive · EV 111.0 / LA 16.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 57.02026-03-20 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 10.02026-03-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA -7.02026-03-22 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA 7.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA -41.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -1.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -13.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA -1.02026-03-31 · double play · FF · line_drive · EV 59.4 / LA 18.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 24.02026-04-01 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 15.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -15.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.5 / LA -11.02026-04-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 12.02026-04-04 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -24.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -22.02026-04-07 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 9.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.8 / LA -5.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 18.02026-04-11 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 0.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 67.8 / LA 17.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA -22.02026-04-17 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA -2.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 24.02026-04-18 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.4 / LA 32.02026-04-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -11.02026-04-18 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 82.2 / LA 20.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.0 / LA 39.02026-04-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -1.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 38.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 112.7 / LA 29.02026-04-24 · field error · SI · ground_ball2026-04-24 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 36.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 28.02026-04-25 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 27.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-04-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.5 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 29.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 80.7 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 17.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 32.02026-04-28 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 10.02026-04-28 · field out · KC · ground_ball2026-04-28 · field out · KC · popup · EV 73.2 / LA 74.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 7.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 46.02026-04-29 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -3.02026-04-30 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 31.02026-04-30 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 17.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 25.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 23.02026-05-02 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 28.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 6.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 48.2 / LA 27.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 16.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -13.02026-05-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 68.1 / LA 19.02026-05-05 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 23.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -37.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -3.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -16.02026-05-06 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.1 / LA 13.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 56.0 / LA 79.02026-05-08 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.9 / LA 43.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -10.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 22.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 112.2 / LA 6.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -10.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA -38.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 22.02026-05-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 14.02026-05-17 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 13.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.3 / LA 70.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 21.02026-05-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA 3.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 7.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 67.5 / LA -25.02026-05-20 · double · KC · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 2.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -3.02026-05-20 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 24.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -3.02026-05-23 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 17.02026-05-23 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 26.02026-05-23 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA -22.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 16.02026-05-25 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 37.02026-05-25 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 21.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 34.02026-05-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -1.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 2.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 62.6 / LA -11.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.2 / LA 30.02026-06-01 · force out · FF · ground_ball2026-06-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 57.9 / LA -22.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 73.3 / LA 77.02026-06-05 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA -10.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 32.02026-06-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 41.02026-06-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.6 / LA 4.02026-06-07 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 63.8 / LA 22.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · popup · EV 84.9 / LA 62.02026-06-20 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 3.02026-06-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 11.02026-06-22 · field out · CH · popup · EV 82.2 / LA 73.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 46.02026-06-26 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 13.02026-06-30 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 88.9 / LA 9.02026-06-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -26.02026-07-31 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -2.02026-07-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 11.02026-07-31 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 1.02026-08-02 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 10.02026-08-02 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 15.02026-08-02 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 17.02026-08-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 51.02026-08-04 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 55.8 / LA 21.02026-08-05 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.9 / LA -6.02026-08-05 · field error · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 45.02026-08-05 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -12.02026-08-05 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 61.3 / LA 20.02026-08-05 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 16.02026-08-11 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 12.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 33.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 46.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -2.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.0 / LA 28.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 45.02026-08-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 76.5 / LA 36.02026-08-14 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 5.02026-08-14 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 44.02026-08-14 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 3.02026-08-14 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 21.02026-08-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.2 / LA -4.02026-08-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 9.02026-08-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.5 / LA -2.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 81.1 / LA 25.02026-08-16 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 18.02026-08-16 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -29.02026-08-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA -4.02026-08-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -12.02026-08-21 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 30.02026-08-21 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -34.02026-08-21 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.5 / LA 34.02026-08-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.5 / LA 43.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 48.5 / LA 34.02026-08-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA -10.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 19.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -8.02026-08-23 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 3.02026-08-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.3 / LA 31.02026-08-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 7.02026-08-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 4.02026-08-23 · field out · SL · popup · EV 80.3 / LA 63.02026-08-24 · field out · ST · popup · EV 77.5 / LA 79.02026-08-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 28.02026-08-24 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 23.02026-08-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -10.02026-08-26 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 67.4 / LA 26.02026-08-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.0 / LA 8.02026-08-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 4.02026-08-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA -33.02026-08-30 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 40.02026-08-30 · field out · FA · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 45.02026-08-30 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -18.02026-08-30 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 28.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Lowe, Nathaniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 89%89%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.286 vs 0.248 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ--
wOBA Δ--
Sample377 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances574----
Home Runs16----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3170.275 to 0.366+/- 0.046
ISO0.1620.102 to 0.244+/- 0.071
Barrel%5.1%2.6% to 7.0%+/- 2.2%
Hard-Hit%41.8%36.5% to 48.6%+/- 6.0%
K%23.4%20.7% to 30.1%+/- 4.7%
BB%10.9%8.7% to 13.7%+/- 2.5%
BABIP0.2970.263 to 0.346+/- 0.041
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1054 career PA

xwOBA0.248
K%23.5%
BB%9.5%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHP

2587 career PA

xwOBA0.286
K%20.3%
BB%10.2%
Barrel3.8%