Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026

Lowe, Nathaniel

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.320 xwOBA
Range
0.278 to 0.370
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced regular Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
78
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
74
Defense1 metrics
10
Speed1 metrics
14
Plate skills10 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
xwOBA preseason0.328
xwOBA current pace0.352
xwOBA rolling p500.341
Observed weight52%
xwOBA
0.310 0.325 0.341 0.356 0.371
wOBA
0.356 0.375 0.396 0.417 0.436
ISO
0.159 0.178 0.198 0.219 0.237
K%
22.5% 23.9% 25.4% 27.0% 28.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
79 +24 vs proj
Exit velocity89.0
60
Hard-hit%41.4%
62
xBA0.382
92
xSLG0.669
89
xwOBA0.352
86 +21 vs proj
BB%11.2%
78
Bat speed72.7
86
K%25.7%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 1B
10
Range Runs-2.8 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · DH
14
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-18
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.5% · rebadged research
21
Correct Decisions66.6% · rebadged research
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.301 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Lowe, Nathaniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.352 2026-07-07: 0.3522026-07-08: 0.3522026-07-09: 0.3462026-07-10: 0.3462026-07-11: 0.3462026-07-12: 0.3462026-07-13: 0.3522026-07-14: 0.3522026-07-15: 0.3522026-07-16: 0.3522026-07-17: 0.3522026-07-18: 0.352 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Lowe, Nathaniel · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 67% of plotted batted ballsCenter 67%Right field third: 21% of plotted batted ballsOppo 21% LF 328 CF 404 RF 325 2026-03-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -19.02026-03-16 · home run · SL · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 22.02026-03-18 · double · SV · line_drive · EV 111.0 / LA 16.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -13.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 57.02026-03-20 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 10.02026-03-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA -7.02026-03-22 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA 7.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA -41.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -1.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -13.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA -1.02026-03-31 · double play · FF · line_drive · EV 59.4 / LA 18.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 24.02026-04-01 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 15.02026-04-04 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -24.02026-04-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 12.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.5 / LA -11.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -15.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -22.02026-04-07 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 9.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 18.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.8 / LA -5.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA -22.02026-04-11 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 0.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 67.8 / LA 17.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 24.02026-04-17 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA -2.02026-04-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -11.02026-04-18 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 82.2 / LA 20.02026-04-18 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.4 / LA 32.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 38.02026-04-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -1.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.0 / LA 39.02026-04-24 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 112.7 / LA 29.02026-04-24 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 36.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 28.02026-04-24 · field error · SI · ground_ball2026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 6.02026-04-25 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 27.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-04-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.5 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 32.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 17.02026-04-26 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 29.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 80.7 / LA 28.02026-04-28 · field out · KC · ground_ball2026-04-28 · field out · KC · popup · EV 73.2 / LA 74.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 7.02026-04-28 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 10.02026-04-29 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -3.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 46.02026-04-30 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 31.02026-04-30 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 17.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 25.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 23.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 6.02026-05-02 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 28.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 48.2 / LA 27.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 16.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -13.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -37.02026-05-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 68.1 / LA 19.02026-05-05 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 23.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -3.02026-05-06 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.1 / LA 13.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -16.02026-05-08 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.9 / LA 43.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 56.0 / LA 79.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -10.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 22.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 112.2 / LA 6.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -10.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA -38.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 22.02026-05-17 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 13.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.3 / LA 70.02026-05-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 14.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 21.02026-05-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA 3.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 7.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 67.5 / LA -25.02026-05-20 · double · KC · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 2.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -3.02026-05-20 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 24.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -3.02026-05-23 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 17.02026-05-23 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 26.02026-05-23 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA -22.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 16.02026-05-25 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 21.02026-05-25 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 37.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 34.02026-05-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -1.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 2.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 62.6 / LA -11.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.2 / LA 30.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 73.3 / LA 77.02026-06-01 · force out · FF · ground_ball2026-06-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 57.9 / LA -22.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 32.02026-06-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 41.02026-06-05 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA -10.02026-06-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.6 / LA 4.02026-06-07 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 63.8 / LA 22.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · popup · EV 84.9 / LA 62.02026-06-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 11.02026-06-20 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 3.02026-06-22 · field out · CH · popup · EV 82.2 / LA 73.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 46.02026-06-26 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 13.02026-06-30 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 88.9 / LA 9.02026-06-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -26.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Lowe, Nathaniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 88%88%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.286 vs 0.248 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.032
wOBA Δ+0.076
Sample241 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances574----
Home Runs17----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3200.278 to 0.370+/- 0.046
ISO0.1640.103 to 0.247+/- 0.072
Barrel%5.4%2.8% to 7.5%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%41.8%36.5% to 48.6%+/- 6.0%
K%23.4%20.7% to 30.1%+/- 4.7%
BB%10.9%8.7% to 13.7%+/- 2.5%
BABIP0.2990.265 to 0.348+/- 0.042
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1054 career PA

xwOBA0.248
K%23.5%
BB%9.5%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHP

2587 career PA

xwOBA0.286
K%20.3%
BB%10.2%
Barrel3.8%