Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026

Lowe, Brandon

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.340 xwOBA
Range
0.301 to 0.375
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced regular Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.339
xwOBA current pace0.373
xwOBA rolling p500.357
Observed weight53%
xwOBA
0.330 0.343 0.357 0.371 0.384
wOBA
0.359 0.378 0.398 0.419 0.438
ISO
0.190 0.207 0.226 0.246 0.263
K%
22.4% 23.8% 25.5% 27.1% 28.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.1%
74 +31 vs proj
Barrel%9.1%
90 +15 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
57
Exit velocity90.4
77
Hard-hit%47.2%
81
K%25.0%
34
xBA0.364
83
xSLG0.719
93
xwOBA0.373
90 +15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · 2B
21
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs4.5 · 2B
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · 2B
29
Sprint Speed27.0 · 2B
42
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.3% · rebadged research
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions64.2% · rebadged research
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
4
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.420 · validated
0
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334 · validated
91
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Lowe, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3712026-05-19: 0.3792026-05-21: 0.3792026-05-23: 0.3802026-05-24: 0.3772026-05-25: 0.3732026-05-26: 0.3822026-05-28: 0.3852026-05-29: 0.3852026-05-30: 0.3812026-05-31: 0.3762026-06-01: 0.373 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

156 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Lowe, Brandon · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsPull 9%Center field third: 66% of plotted batted ballsCenter 66%Right field third: 25% of plotted batted ballsOppo 25% LF 325 CF 399 RF 320 2026-03-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 4.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 109.5 / LA 16.02026-03-18 · field out · SL · popup · EV 80.5 / LA 65.02026-03-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.8 / LA 19.02026-03-21 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 13.02026-03-21 · single · FS · fly_ball · EV 78.3 / LA 37.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 86.2 / LA 32.02026-03-23 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 27.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -3.02026-03-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 52.7 / LA -30.02026-03-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 35.02026-03-26 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 47.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · popup · EV 69.1 / LA 48.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · popup · EV 87.6 / LA 64.02026-03-28 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 26.4 / LA -67.02026-03-28 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 60.6 / LA 5.02026-03-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 34.02026-03-29 · double · FC · popup · EV 60.3 / LA 33.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 8.02026-03-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 7.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 47.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 62.5 / LA 28.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 60.2 / LA 31.02026-04-03 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 19.02026-04-04 · force out · KC · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -32.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · popup · EV 72.9 / LA 51.02026-04-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -9.02026-04-05 · double play · FC · line_drive · EV 83.5 / LA 9.02026-04-05 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 1.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 55.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 54.02026-04-05 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 71.2 / LA 21.02026-04-06 · field out · KC · popup · EV 73.4 / LA 72.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.5 / LA 4.02026-04-06 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 88.9 / LA 18.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -8.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.0 / LA 31.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.0 / LA 79.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 18.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -28.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 5.02026-04-11 · field error · ST · ground_ball · EV 53.0 / LA -72.02026-04-12 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 27.02026-04-12 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 39.02026-04-13 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -19.02026-04-13 · single · KC · fly_ball · EV 69.5 / LA 31.02026-04-13 · field out · FC · popup · EV 77.8 / LA 72.02026-04-13 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 4.02026-04-13 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 27.02026-04-14 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 38.02026-04-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -9.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 29.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 60.3 / LA -48.02026-04-16 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -7.02026-04-16 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 10.02026-04-16 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -3.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 2.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 52.02026-04-17 · double · CU · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 25.02026-04-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 26.02026-04-17 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 16.02026-04-18 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 64.9 / LA 21.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 29.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA -33.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 44.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 57.6 / LA -47.02026-04-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 79.0 / LA 19.02026-04-23 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 18.02026-04-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 61.02026-04-24 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 15.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · popup · EV 76.6 / LA 77.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -20.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 0.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 4.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA -1.02026-04-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -19.02026-04-27 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 37.02026-04-28 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 18.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 88.4 / LA 24.02026-04-29 · double · KC · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 29.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 21.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 35.02026-04-30 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 82.8 / LA -20.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 40.02026-04-30 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 27.02026-04-30 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 14.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -11.02026-05-01 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 24.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · popup · EV 94.3 / LA 68.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 18.02026-05-02 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 16.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · popup · EV 89.1 / LA 76.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.4 / LA -20.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 47.02026-05-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.4 / LA -14.02026-05-06 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 26.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.3 / LA -15.02026-05-07 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 37.02026-05-07 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 82.8 / LA -46.02026-05-07 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 12.02026-05-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 5.02026-05-07 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 16.02026-05-08 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 65.8 / LA -31.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 61.6 / LA 45.02026-05-09 · double · EP · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 16.02026-05-09 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 25.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -13.02026-05-09 · triple · SL · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 21.02026-05-10 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -14.02026-05-10 · double play · SL · line_drive · EV 61.8 / LA 14.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 79.8 / LA 18.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · popup · EV 57.8 / LA 60.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 55.4 / LA -63.02026-05-13 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 42.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 52.02026-05-14 · field out · CU · popup · EV 88.2 / LA 64.02026-05-14 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 45.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 33.02026-05-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 46.02026-05-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.2 / LA 24.02026-05-15 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 27.02026-05-16 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA -17.02026-05-17 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 16.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 25.02026-05-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.2 / LA 21.02026-05-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.3 / LA 13.02026-05-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.9 / LA 11.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 39.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -3.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 50.02026-05-20 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.6 / LA 13.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -18.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 45.02026-05-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -6.02026-05-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 39.02026-05-21 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 7.02026-05-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 15.02026-05-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 11.02026-05-22 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 83.2 / LA 13.02026-05-22 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 36.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 46.02026-05-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 9.02026-05-24 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA -35.02026-05-25 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 30.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 81.5 / LA 22.02026-05-25 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 23.02026-05-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 79.6 / LA 24.02026-05-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 8.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -5.02026-05-27 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 25.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 1.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -17.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 18.02026-05-31 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA -5.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 33.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 39.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Lowe, Brandon · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 33.7° Length 7.0 ft Ideal path 47% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Lowe, Brandon · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 15.4° Direction -2.6° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Lowe, Brandon · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.4 mph Hard swing rate 34% Whiff / swing 32% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Lowe, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 32%32%Whiff: 33%33%Zone contact: 80%80%Contact: 67%67%Hard hit: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.291 vs 0.242 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.033
wOBA Δ+0.058
Sample252 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances533----
Home Runs26----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3400.301 to 0.375+/- 0.037
ISO0.1890.140 to 0.275+/- 0.067
Barrel%7.0%4.7% to 8.9%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%45.4%38.9% to 50.4%+/- 5.7%
K%25.4%21.3% to 31.9%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.4%6.0% to 11.3%+/- 2.6%
BABIP0.2950.245 to 0.339+/- 0.047
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

766 career PA

xwOBA0.242
K%24.3%
BB%5.0%
Barrel4.6%
vs RHP

2491 career PA

xwOBA0.291
K%22.0%
BB%7.2%
Barrel6.7%