Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SF · 2026
Bader, Harrison
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SF
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.285 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.272 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.253
0.266
0.280
0.295
0.308
wOBA
0.199
0.224
0.251
0.278
0.303
ISO
0.115
0.135
0.157
0.179
0.199
K%
23.0%
24.6%
26.4%
28.2%
29.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.4%
10
Barrel%5.3%
53
Bat speed70.7
67
Exit velocity89.2
57
Hard-hit%41.1%
54
K%31.6%
8
-29 vs proj
xBA0.316
42
xSLG0.540
59
xwOBA0.272
18
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · CF
41
Arm Strength93.1 · CF
61
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs0.2 · CF
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · CF
58
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.6% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
17
Correct Decisions59.7% · rebadged research
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
64
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
69
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
39
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
52
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
9
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
71 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.034 |
| Sample | 114 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 510 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.263 to 0.325 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.123 | 0.095 to 0.214 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 3.1% to 6.7% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.4% | 31.9% to 43.3% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 24.2% | 19.3% to 27.8% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.6% to 9.3% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.307 | 0.262 to 0.359 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
876 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 20.5% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
vs RHP
2351 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |