Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SF · 2026
Bader, Harrison
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SF
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.285 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.272 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.253
0.266
0.280
0.295
0.308
wOBA
0.199
0.224
0.251
0.278
0.303
ISO
0.115
0.135
0.157
0.179
0.199
K%
23.0%
24.6%
26.4%
28.2%
29.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
53
Exit velocity89.2
64
Hard-hit%41.1%
59
+16 vs proj
xBA0.316
44
xSLG0.540
60
xwOBA0.272
17
BB%4.4%
10
Bat speed70.7
67
K%31.6%
10
-30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · CF
42
Arm Strength93.1 · CF
52
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
46
Range Runs0.2 · CF
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · CF
53
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.6% · rebadged research
12
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
17
Correct Decisions59.7% · rebadged research
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
66
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
40
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
50
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346 · validated
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
71 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.034 |
| Sample | 114 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 510 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.263 to 0.325 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.123 | 0.095 to 0.214 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 3.1% to 6.7% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.4% | 31.9% to 43.3% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 24.2% | 19.3% to 27.8% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.6% to 9.3% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.307 | 0.262 to 0.359 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
876 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 20.5% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
vs RHP
2351 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |