Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Straw, Myles
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TOR
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.280 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.325 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
xwOBA
0.252
0.273
0.295
0.318
0.338
wOBA
0.268
0.295
0.325
0.355
0.382
ISO
0.054
0.078
0.104
0.130
0.153
K%
13.4%
15.4%
17.6%
19.9%
21.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
55
+30 vs proj
Barrel%3.7%
29
+19 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
13
Exit velocity84.9
14
Hard-hit%28.0%
11
K%14.7%
87
+23 vs proj
xBA0.332
58
xSLG0.467
35
xwOBA0.325
64
+50 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · RF
34
Arm Strength93.6 · RF
63
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs0.8 · RF
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · RF
24
Bolts13.0 · RF
78
Sprint Speed29.6 · RF
96
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 79.2% · rebadged research
98
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.9% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions70.9% · rebadged research
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.260 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
43
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
61
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
33
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
91
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
79 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.061 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.061 |
| Sample | 109 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 366 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.264 | 0.226 to 0.340 | +/- 0.057 |
| ISO | 0.072 | 0.045 to 0.189 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 1.7% | 0.6% to 4.3% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 24.8% | 15.6% to 36.3% | +/- 10.3% |
| K% | 19.5% | 15.8% to 27.8% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 6.6% | 5.1% to 10.2% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.232 to 0.334 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
757 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.216 |
| K% | 13.5% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
1686 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.205 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |