Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Isbel, Kyle
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team KC
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.280 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.261
0.272
0.285
0.298
0.309
wOBA
0.310
0.332
0.356
0.380
0.402
ISO
0.116
0.131
0.149
0.167
0.183
K%
17.2%
18.7%
20.3%
21.8%
23.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.6%
17
Barrel%2.2%
16
Bat speed66.6
18
Exit velocity84.5
12
Hard-hit%36.5%
36
K%21.3%
54
xBA0.322
48
xSLG0.448
30
xwOBA0.280
22
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · CF
16
Arm Strength87.5 · CF
16
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
96
Range Runs3.1 · CF
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · CF
91
Sprint Speed27.4 · CF
53
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.1% · rebadged research
17
Correct Decisions63.0% · rebadged research
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
19
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
63
Resists FastballwOBA 0.367 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.324 · validated
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
22
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
121 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.071 |
| Sample | 178 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 458 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.263 to 0.316 | +/- 0.026 |
| ISO | 0.132 | 0.108 to 0.217 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% | 3.0% | 1.5% to 5.2% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.3% | 31.5% to 46.5% | +/- 7.5% |
| K% | 19.3% | 16.4% to 25.2% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.6% to 9.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.253 to 0.349 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
302 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.198 |
| K% | 20.1% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |
vs RHP
1345 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.221 |
| K% | 14.8% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |