Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.234 vs 0.199 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Lukes, Nathan
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TOR
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
25
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.301 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.305 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.292
0.305
0.318
0.330
wOBA
0.340
0.359
0.380
0.401
0.421
ISO
0.112
0.127
0.143
0.160
0.174
K%
12.4%
13.6%
14.9%
16.1%
17.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
3
-18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.5
21
Hard-hit%29.8%
15
-18 vs proj
xBA0.320
49
xSLG0.418
18
xwOBA0.301
44
BB%6.4%
23
-23 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
9
K%14.4%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · RF
85
Arm Strength95.0 · RF
65
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs0.9 · RF
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
34
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.4% · rebadged research
11
Correct Decisions64.2% · rebadged research
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.319 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
97 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.068 |
| Sample | 236 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 472 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.312 | 0.283 to 0.347 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.146 | 0.109 to 0.224 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 2.1% to 5.5% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.5% | 30.0% to 44.6% | +/- 7.3% |
| K% | 14.0% | 12.9% to 20.9% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.1% to 11.1% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.275 | 0.262 to 0.329 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
103 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.199 |
| K% | 13.7% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |
vs RHP
614 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 9.4% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |