Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.234 vs 0.199 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Lukes, Nathan
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TOR
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.336 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.288
0.302
0.317
0.332
0.346
wOBA
0.369
0.400
0.434
0.468
0.498
ISO
0.104
0.124
0.146
0.167
0.187
K%
12.0%
13.4%
15.1%
16.7%
18.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.2%
22
-20 vs proj
Barrel%1.0%
6
-17 vs proj
Bat speed66.4
16
Exit velocity86.9
31
Hard-hit%38.4%
43
K%14.4%
88
xBA0.372
86
xSLG0.481
40
xwOBA0.336
72
+19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength92.4 · RF
53
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Arm Runs0.9 · RF
Limited
Range Runs0.4 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · RF
45
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.5% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 33.1% · rebadged research
6
Correct Decisions62.8% · rebadged research
19
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
35
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
57
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.337 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
9
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
66 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.122 |
| Sample | 97 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 472 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.312 | 0.283 to 0.347 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.146 | 0.109 to 0.224 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 2.1% to 5.5% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.5% | 30.0% to 44.6% | +/- 7.3% |
| K% | 14.0% | 12.9% to 20.9% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.1% to 11.1% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.275 | 0.262 to 0.329 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
103 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.199 |
| K% | 13.7% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |
vs RHP
614 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 9.4% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |