Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
McCarthy, Jake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.288
0.302
0.317
0.333
0.347
wOBA
0.363
0.385
0.410
0.434
0.456
ISO
0.127
0.146
0.167
0.188
0.207
K%
15.4%
17.1%
18.9%
20.8%
22.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.9%
13
Barrel%3.8%
32
Bat speed67.8
25
Exit velocity81.6
4
Hard-hit%24.1%
6
K%18.1%
73
xBA0.328
57
xSLG0.500
46
xwOBA0.309
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · CF
58
Arm Strength83.4 · CF
2
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs-0.4 · CF
45
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · CF
49
Bolts24.0 · CF
91
SB Success Rate80.0% · CF
49
Sprint Speed29.8 · CF
98
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.7% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0% · rebadged research
91
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
57
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
85
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample
16
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
130 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.096 |
| Sample | 182 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 373 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.285 to 0.364 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.142 | 0.103 to 0.238 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 1.5% to 5.2% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 25.0% | 20.4% to 34.8% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 17.1% | 14.7% to 26.2% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 6.5% | 4.3% to 9.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.252 to 0.365 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
415 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
1137 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |