Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
McCarthy, Jake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
38
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.319 |
| Observed weight | 71% |
xwOBA
0.298
0.308
0.319
0.331
0.341
wOBA
0.349
0.362
0.376
0.390
0.403
ISO
0.157
0.169
0.182
0.196
0.207
K%
15.0%
16.1%
17.2%
18.4%
19.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
33
Exit velocity82.6
8
Hard-hit%28.2%
12
xBA0.332
65
xSLG0.491
46
xwOBA0.317
65
BB%4.9%
13
Bat speed67.6
26
K%16.3%
84
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.0 · LF
11
Arm Strength86.3 · LF
6
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
88
Range Runs1.6 · LF
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.5 · LF
95
Bolts87.0 · LF
99
SB Success Rate81.5% · LF
53
Sprint Speed29.9 · LF
99
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.4% · rebadged research
93
Correct Decisions68.9% · rebadged research
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383 · validated
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.245 · borderline
99
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
16
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
21
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
253 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.062 |
| Sample | 529 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 373 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.285 to 0.364 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.142 | 0.103 to 0.238 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 1.5% to 5.2% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 25.0% | 20.4% to 34.8% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 17.1% | 14.7% to 26.2% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 6.5% | 4.3% to 9.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.252 to 0.365 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
415 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
1137 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |