Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Tatis Jr.., Fernando
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team SD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.370 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.347 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.358 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.330
0.343
0.358
0.372
0.385
wOBA
0.292
0.310
0.329
0.349
0.367
ISO
0.088
0.102
0.117
0.132
0.145
K%
18.6%
19.9%
21.4%
22.8%
24.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.6%
71
Barrel%6.3%
67
-16 vs proj
Bat speed72.3
82
Exit velocity89.7
65
Hard-hit%51.2%
93
K%22.4%
47
xBA0.371
86
xSLG0.537
58
xwOBA0.347
79
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · RF
51
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
96
Outs Above Avg3.0 · RF
94
Range Runs5.6 · RF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · RF
11
Bolts8.0 · RF
71
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
22
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
91
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4% · rebadged research
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.6% · rebadged research
90
Correct Decisions69.2% · rebadged research
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
43
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
48
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
63
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
160 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| Sample | 255 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 608 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.367 | 0.337 to 0.417 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.193 | 0.141 to 0.257 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 8.1% | 5.5% to 9.9% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 51.7% | 45.0% to 57.8% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 20.0% | 15.7% to 24.8% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 10.3% | 8.4% to 13.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.306 | 0.265 to 0.348 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
780 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.321 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 12.2% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |
vs RHP
2315 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.329 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 7.2% |