Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Guerrero Jr.., Vladimir
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TOR
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.397 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.362 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.378 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.349
0.363
0.378
0.393
0.407
wOBA
0.345
0.363
0.384
0.404
0.423
ISO
0.119
0.134
0.151
0.167
0.182
K%
9.7%
10.8%
12.1%
13.3%
14.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.2%
81
Barrel%5.9%
61
-29 vs proj
Bat speed74.9
97
Exit velocity90.9
83
Hard-hit%45.4%
73
-19 vs proj
K%10.2%
97
xBA0.349
74
xSLG0.483
41
xwOBA0.362
85
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
71
Range Runs0.2 · 1B
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 1B
38
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
93
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
18
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6% · rebadged research
86
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
71
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
71
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
22
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
183 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| Sample | 255 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 666 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.393 | 0.348 to 0.436 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.204 | 0.144 to 0.269 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 9.2% | 6.6% to 11.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 50.9% | 45.3% to 58.5% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 13.3% | 11.1% to 19.5% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 11.1% | 8.7% to 14.1% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.319 | 0.283 to 0.359 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
985 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.357 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 13.6% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHP
3479 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.348 |
| K% | 12.0% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |