Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Marchán, Rafael
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
4
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.308 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.212 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.277 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.261
0.277
0.294
0.309
wOBA
0.153
0.177
0.203
0.230
0.254
ISO
0.092
0.118
0.147
0.175
0.201
K%
11.9%
14.0%
16.4%
18.7%
20.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
12
-23 vs proj
Exit velocity83.1
8
Hard-hit%20.5%
3
-18 vs proj
xBA0.221
1
xSLG0.304
1
xwOBA0.212
2
-56 vs proj
BB%3.9%
8
-31 vs proj
Bat speed64.6
6
K%18.4%
72
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.0 · C
92
Catcher Throwing1.2 · C
78
Framing Runs3.7 · C
89
Pop Time1.9 · C
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · C
18
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.7% · rebadged research
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.0% · rebadged research
9
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · borderline
87
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
41
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
95
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
15
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
65 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.102 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.111 |
| Sample | 103 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 273 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.260 to 0.339 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.144 | 0.062 to 0.219 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 1.7% to 6.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.2% | 24.2% to 41.6% | +/- 8.7% |
| K% | 18.1% | 11.7% to 24.0% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 3.1% to 9.8% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.228 to 0.330 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
88 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.138 |
| K% | 5.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
171 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.125 |
| K% | 6.3% |
| BB% | 3.0% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |