Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Marchán, Rafael
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.308 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.191 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.276 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
xwOBA
0.244
0.259
0.276
0.293
0.309
wOBA
0.134
0.160
0.190
0.219
0.245
ISO
0.089
0.116
0.147
0.177
0.204
K%
12.5%
14.8%
17.3%
19.8%
22.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.7%
7
-31 vs proj
Barrel%1.2%
7
-28 vs proj
Bat speed64.4
5
Exit velocity85.0
15
Hard-hit%22.4%
5
-16 vs proj
K%22.2%
48
-25 vs proj
xBA0.207
1
xSLG0.276
1
xwOBA0.191
1
-53 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.8 · C
88
Catcher Throwing0.9 · C
76
Framing Runs2.4 · C
84
Pop Time1.9 · C
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
18
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.2% · rebadged research
34
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.5% · rebadged research
11
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
88
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
83
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
15
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
58 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.123 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.124 |
| Sample | 81 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 273 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.260 to 0.339 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.144 | 0.062 to 0.219 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 1.7% to 6.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.2% | 24.2% to 41.6% | +/- 8.7% |
| K% | 18.1% | 11.7% to 24.0% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 3.1% to 9.8% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.228 to 0.330 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
88 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.138 |
| K% | 5.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
171 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.125 |
| K% | 6.3% |
| BB% | 3.0% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |