Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Taveras, Leody
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
26
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.289 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.291 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.263
0.276
0.291
0.306
0.319
wOBA
0.297
0.313
0.332
0.350
0.366
ISO
0.104
0.118
0.134
0.150
0.164
K%
21.4%
22.9%
24.6%
26.3%
27.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27
-16 vs proj
Exit velocity83.7
9
Hard-hit%30.9%
17
-31 vs proj
xBA0.312
38
xSLG0.471
35
xwOBA0.289
30
BB%9.5%
62
+32 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
36
K%25.7%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · CF
82
Arm Strength98.2 · CF
88
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
46
Range Runs-3.7 · CF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.3 · CF
90
Bolts25.0 · CF
85
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
34
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7% · rebadged research
72
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
87
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.400 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
138 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.037 |
| Sample | 304 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 354 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.248 to 0.346 | +/- 0.049 |
| ISO | 0.135 | 0.091 to 0.217 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.6% to 7.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.7% | 32.1% to 48.2% | +/- 8.1% |
| K% | 22.9% | 18.0% to 30.7% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 4.8% to 9.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.228 to 0.348 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
513 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
1558 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |