Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Taveras, Leody
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.320 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.306 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.289
0.306
0.324
0.339
wOBA
0.331
0.353
0.377
0.401
0.422
ISO
0.097
0.115
0.134
0.154
0.171
K%
19.2%
21.0%
23.1%
25.1%
26.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.8%
79
+50 vs proj
Barrel%3.7%
30
Bat speed68.4
32
Exit velocity84.0
9
Hard-hit%29.8%
13
-32 vs proj
K%23.0%
43
xBA0.334
61
xSLG0.483
40
xwOBA0.320
59
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · CF
68
Arm Strength98.2 · CF
92
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
8
Range Runs-2.5 · CF
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · CF
81
Bolts11.0 · CF
74
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
92
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · borderline
16
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
72
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
71
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
75
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
112 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.082 |
| Sample | 187 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 354 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.248 to 0.346 | +/- 0.049 |
| ISO | 0.135 | 0.091 to 0.217 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.6% to 7.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.7% | 32.1% to 48.2% | +/- 8.1% |
| K% | 22.9% | 18.0% to 30.7% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 4.8% to 9.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.228 to 0.348 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
513 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
1558 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |