Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.284 vs 0.242 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Chisholm Jr.., Jazz
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.305 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.277
0.290
0.305
0.320
0.333
wOBA
0.301
0.319
0.339
0.360
0.378
ISO
0.128
0.144
0.161
0.178
0.194
K%
24.0%
25.4%
26.9%
28.5%
29.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.2%
67
Barrel%3.7%
29
-50 vs proj
Bat speed70.8
70
Exit velocity88.5
51
Hard-hit%37.7%
41
-23 vs proj
K%27.2%
25
xBA0.310
36
xSLG0.506
48
xwOBA0.287
29
-36 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
42
Arm Strength83.6 · 2B
32
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs2.7 · 2B
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · 2B
92
Bolts3.0 · 2B
43
SB Success Rate90.9% · 2B
85
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
81
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions66.2% · rebadged research
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.319 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · insufficient sample
99
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
63
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
144 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.039 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.014 |
| Sample | 246 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 558 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.326 | 0.276 to 0.362 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.183 | 0.143 to 0.266 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 7.5% | 5.1% to 9.5% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.1% | 36.5% to 49.8% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 27.3% | 22.4% to 31.8% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 6.9% to 12.2% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.239 to 0.339 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
712 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
1852 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.284 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 7.6% |