Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Chaparro, Andrés
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team WSH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
81
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.356 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.329 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.305
0.329
0.353
0.374
wOBA
0.355
0.377
0.400
0.423
0.445
ISO
0.151
0.173
0.198
0.223
0.246
K%
16.3%
18.2%
20.4%
22.6%
24.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
88
+39 vs proj
Exit velocity90.2
80
Hard-hit%45.7%
82
+40 vs proj
xBA0.326
58
xSLG0.619
84
xwOBA0.356
93
+32 vs proj
BB%11.6%
84
+51 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
79
K%22.1%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.2 · 1B
2
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-2.1 · 1B
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · 1B
6
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions67.3% · rebadged research
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
10
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
87
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.393 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
54
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
80 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.041 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.086 |
| Sample | 199 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 250 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.220 to 0.371 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.162 | 0.070 to 0.236 | +/- 0.083 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 1.3% to 7.9% | +/- 3.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 26.0% to 45.1% | +/- 9.5% |
| K% | 23.8% | 15.6% to 29.7% | +/- 7.1% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 2.7% to 9.2% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.218 to 0.348 | +/- 0.065 |
vs LHP
99 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.129 |
| K% | 9.7% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
130 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.115 |
| K% | 9.3% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |