Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Chaparro, Andrés
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team WSH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
71
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.325 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
xwOBA
0.253
0.280
0.310
0.341
0.368
wOBA
0.278
0.309
0.345
0.380
0.411
ISO
0.089
0.118
0.150
0.182
0.211
K%
15.6%
18.1%
21.0%
23.8%
26.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
66
+21 vs proj
Exit velocity91.8
91
Hard-hit%50.0%
91
+53 vs proj
xBA0.315
42
xSLG0.561
68
xwOBA0.325
67
BB%14.5%
95
+64 vs proj
Bat speed73.1
90
K%26.5%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
68
Range Runs0.7 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · 1B
6
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.4% · rebadged research
34
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7% · rebadged research
73
Correct Decisions63.9% · rebadged research
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
54
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
76
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
44
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
35
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
34 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.030 |
| Sample | 83 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 250 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.220 to 0.371 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.162 | 0.070 to 0.236 | +/- 0.083 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 1.3% to 7.9% | +/- 3.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 26.0% to 45.1% | +/- 9.5% |
| K% | 23.8% | 15.6% to 29.7% | +/- 7.1% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 2.7% to 9.2% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.218 to 0.348 | +/- 0.065 |
vs LHP
99 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.129 |
| K% | 9.7% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
130 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.115 |
| K% | 9.3% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |