Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Narváez, Carlos
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
38
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.308 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.265 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.283 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.255
0.269
0.283
0.298
0.312
wOBA
0.221
0.236
0.254
0.271
0.287
ISO
0.082
0.096
0.112
0.128
0.142
K%
26.8%
28.1%
29.5%
31.0%
32.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
36
-21 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
44
Hard-hit%38.4%
51
-27 vs proj
xBA0.308
38
xSLG0.490
46
xwOBA0.265
16
-26 vs proj
BB%6.8%
30
-20 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
43
K%31.8%
10
-27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.6 · C
96
Catcher Throwing-0.4 · C
43
Framing Runs2.1 · C
74
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.4% · rebadged research
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions66.6% · rebadged research
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
8
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
48
Resists FastballwOBA 0.287 · validated
100
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.032 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.043 |
| Sample | 280 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 438 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.297 | 0.252 to 0.347 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.158 | 0.096 to 0.225 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.0% to 7.5% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.6% | 35.0% to 50.3% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 25.4% | 21.1% to 29.7% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 5.9% to 11.7% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.256 to 0.334 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
150 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.207 |
| K% | 16.4% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
353 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.190 |
| K% | 17.7% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |