Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Fermin, Freddy
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SD
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.291 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.242 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.273 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.259
0.273
0.287
0.299
wOBA
0.205
0.229
0.254
0.280
0.304
ISO
0.073
0.091
0.110
0.129
0.147
K%
15.7%
17.5%
19.5%
21.5%
23.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.1%
66
+48 vs proj
Barrel%0.0%
1
-30 vs proj
Bat speed66.6
18
Exit velocity85.0
16
Hard-hit%25.3%
6
-21 vs proj
K%20.9%
57
-15 vs proj
xBA0.236
3
xSLG0.308
2
xwOBA0.242
6
-28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.5 · C
72
Catcher Throwing1.3 · C
81
Framing Runs1.5 · C
71
Pop Time1.9 · C
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · C
39
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.5% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions66.8% · rebadged research
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
65
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
48
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
84
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.322 · validated
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
84 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.051 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.039 |
| Sample | 129 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 428 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.257 to 0.319 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.117 | 0.083 to 0.197 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.0% to 6.1% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.4% | 32.8% to 43.0% | +/- 5.1% |
| K% | 18.3% | 15.5% to 26.3% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.0% to 8.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.235 to 0.324 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
317 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 4.9% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
699 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.212 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 2.8% |