Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Cortes, Carlos
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
45
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.308 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 60% |
xwOBA
0.277
0.289
0.302
0.315
0.327
wOBA
0.290
0.306
0.323
0.340
0.356
ISO
0.122
0.139
0.157
0.176
0.192
K%
14.1%
15.9%
17.9%
19.8%
21.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
44
-15 vs proj
Exit velocity89.1
64
Hard-hit%37.0%
44
xBA0.303
31
xSLG0.461
35
xwOBA0.308
55
BB%8.4%
49
Bat speed68.7
37
K%16.8%
83
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.4 · RF
82
Arm Strength91.6 · RF
33
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-7.0 · RF
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · RF
19
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.6% · rebadged research
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions71.1% · rebadged research
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
91
Changeup Stuff+94
10
Mithrandir Stuff+83
6
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
62
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.340 · validated
86
Slider Stuff+81
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
169 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| Sample | 334 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 251 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.317 | 0.229 to 0.309 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.083 to 0.246 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 1.9% to 7.8% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.4% | 26.7% to 45.8% | +/- 9.6% |
| K% | 21.4% | 12.1% to 29.1% | +/- 8.5% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 3.0% to 9.8% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.301 | 0.244 to 0.364 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
5 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.086 |
| K% | 6.6% |
| BB% | 1.3% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |
vs RHP
110 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.093 |
| K% | 6.2% |
| BB% | 1.4% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |