Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.268 vs 0.220 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Lowe, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team LAA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.263 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.294 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.261
0.277
0.294
0.312
0.328
wOBA
0.259
0.282
0.307
0.332
0.355
ISO
0.137
0.156
0.177
0.198
0.217
K%
23.7%
25.6%
27.6%
29.7%
31.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.6%
11
-23 vs proj
Barrel%5.3%
53
Bat speed71.3
74
Exit velocity87.1
32
Hard-hit%32.7%
22
-36 vs proj
K%29.6%
15
-22 vs proj
xBA0.296
28
xSLG0.520
52
xwOBA0.263
13
-40 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
53
Arm Strength91.6 · LF
43
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Range Runs-0.2 · LF
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · LF
37
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
56
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.8% · rebadged research
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
31
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.327 · validated
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
18
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
98 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.049 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| Sample | 152 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 468 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.312 | 0.271 to 0.365 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.173 | 0.131 to 0.256 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.0% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.5% | 38.1% to 48.0% | +/- 4.9% |
| K% | 24.2% | 21.5% to 33.0% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 4.8% to 10.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.319 | 0.276 to 0.374 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
303 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
1299 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |