Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Hamilton, David
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
16
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.274 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.252
0.265
0.280
0.295
0.309
wOBA
0.308
0.323
0.340
0.357
0.372
ISO
0.093
0.109
0.127
0.144
0.160
K%
19.2%
20.6%
22.3%
23.9%
25.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
21
Exit velocity80.1
2
Hard-hit%29.3%
15
xBA0.293
23
xSLG0.409
15
xwOBA0.274
21
BB%8.8%
54
+17 vs proj
Bat speed62.6
2
K%20.7%
62
+19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.8 · 3B
70
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-5.9 · 3B
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · 3B
92
Bolts52.0 · 3B
94
SB Success Rate81.8% · 3B
55
Sprint Speed29.4 · 3B
94
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.5% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
43
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
74
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
29
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
71
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
13
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
173 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.053 |
| Sample | 353 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 338 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.229 to 0.342 | +/- 0.057 |
| ISO | 0.147 | 0.087 to 0.249 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 3.9% | 2.3% to 7.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.1% | 23.9% to 43.8% | +/- 10.0% |
| K% | 23.9% | 19.1% to 32.4% | +/- 6.7% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 4.2% to 10.3% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.265 | 0.203 to 0.319 | +/- 0.058 |
vs LHP
79 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.168 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |
vs RHP
510 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.185 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |