Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Adell, Jo
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team LAA
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.335 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.335 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.309
0.321
0.335
0.349
0.361
wOBA
0.284
0.302
0.321
0.340
0.357
ISO
0.147
0.161
0.177
0.193
0.207
K%
22.7%
24.1%
25.7%
27.3%
28.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%2.6%
2
-33 vs proj
Barrel%6.0%
62
-23 vs proj
Bat speed75.4
99
Exit velocity91.2
87
Hard-hit%46.4%
78
K%25.4%
33
xBA0.361
82
xSLG0.611
77
xwOBA0.335
71
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.7 · RF
8
Arm Strength91.8 · RF
47
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-1.3 · RF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · RF
39
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
67
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.4% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
5
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.231 · validated thin sample
100
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
61
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360 · validated
17
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332 · validated
92
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
173 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.015 |
| Sample | 268 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 546 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 29 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.336 | 0.300 to 0.374 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.206 | 0.168 to 0.281 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 8.5% | 6.2% to 10.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.5% | 40.3% to 53.6% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 24.4% | 20.7% to 31.2% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 4.7% to 10.3% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.266 | 0.202 to 0.300 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
456 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.289 |
| K% | 18.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |
vs RHP
1304 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.269 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |