Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Morel, Christopher
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team MIA
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.216 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
xwOBA
0.255
0.272
0.292
0.311
0.328
wOBA
0.185
0.214
0.247
0.280
0.309
ISO
0.090
0.114
0.142
0.169
0.193
K%
25.4%
27.7%
30.4%
33.0%
35.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
48
Barrel%1.3%
7
-66 vs proj
Bat speed73.3
91
Exit velocity86.8
30
Hard-hit%35.7%
31
-41 vs proj
K%35.4%
2
xBA0.307
34
xSLG0.394
14
xwOBA0.216
3
-63 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
9
Range Runs-2.0 · 1B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.7 · 1B
33
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.9% · rebadged research
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.1% · rebadged research
16
Correct Decisions62.1% · rebadged research
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
74
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
13
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
32
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.340 · validated
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
42 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.111 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.080 |
| Sample | 79 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 430 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.275 to 0.366 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.195 | 0.132 to 0.271 | +/- 0.070 |
| Barrel% | 6.8% | 4.5% to 9.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.0% | 38.1% to 52.9% | +/- 7.4% |
| K% | 29.5% | 23.2% to 35.7% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 9.2% | 6.7% to 12.3% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.227 to 0.323 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
531 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
1332 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 24.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |