Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Morel, Christopher
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYM
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
20
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.223 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.250
0.267
0.285
0.303
0.320
wOBA
0.195
0.221
0.251
0.280
0.306
ISO
0.082
0.104
0.129
0.154
0.177
K%
25.0%
27.2%
29.7%
32.2%
34.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.0%
4
-76 vs proj
Exit velocity86.8
38
Hard-hit%36.4%
40
-39 vs proj
xBA0.297
26
xSLG0.376
8
xwOBA0.223
4
-66 vs proj
BB%9.1%
57
Bat speed73.2
90
K%32.3%
8
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Arm Runs0.1 · 1B
Small sample
Range Runs-1.5 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · 1B
41
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.8% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions61.6% · rebadged research
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.302 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333 · validated
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
46 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.097 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.070 |
| Sample | 99 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 430 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.270 to 0.359 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.191 | 0.129 to 0.266 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 7.0% | 4.7% to 9.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.0% | 38.1% to 52.9% | +/- 7.4% |
| K% | 29.5% | 23.2% to 35.7% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 9.2% | 6.7% to 12.3% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.222 to 0.316 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
531 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
1332 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 24.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |