Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
García, Adolis
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PHI
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.305 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.291
0.305
0.319
0.332
wOBA
0.271
0.289
0.309
0.329
0.347
ISO
0.121
0.138
0.156
0.175
0.191
K%
24.9%
26.3%
27.9%
29.6%
31.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
58
+28 vs proj
Barrel%4.5%
42
-35 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
54
Exit velocity92.5
92
Hard-hit%48.6%
87
K%29.8%
13
-21 vs proj
xBA0.332
59
xSLG0.516
51
xwOBA0.287
29
-31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.6 · RF
93
Arm Strength95.8 · RF
77
Outs Above Avg3.0 · RF
94
Range Runs3.0 · RF
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · RF
51
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
33
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.8% · rebadged research
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · borderline
85
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
50
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
38
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.317 · validated
98
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
140 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.033 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| Sample | 245 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 552 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.296 to 0.374 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.179 | 0.138 to 0.273 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.6% to 10.0% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.5% | 41.0% to 55.0% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 25.1% | 21.9% to 31.9% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 4.5% to 9.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.224 to 0.324 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
937 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.262 |
| K% | 24.6% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |
vs RHP
2387 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |