Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Rogers, Jake
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CWS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
58
Exit velocity86.7
38
Hard-hit%36.2%
40
xBA0.281
14
xSLG0.488
46
xwOBA0.275
22
BB%13.3%
93
Bat speed67.3
23
K%28.9%
20
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.3 · C
13
Catcher Throwing0.8 · C
71
Framing Runs-1.7 · C
27
Pop Time2.0 · C
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · C
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.8% · rebadged research
7
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
38
Fastball Stuff+71
1
Mithrandir Stuff+67
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
70
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
66
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
69
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.340 · validated
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
64 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
| Sample | 166 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 320 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.237 to 0.351 | +/- 0.057 |
| ISO | 0.158 | 0.110 to 0.259 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 3.3% to 9.3% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.0% | 36.0% to 52.0% | +/- 8.0% |
| K% | 28.9% | 23.3% to 37.1% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.0% to 11.4% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.199 to 0.326 | +/- 0.063 |
vs LHP
340 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |
vs RHP
848 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |