Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Bleday, Jj
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
75
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.368 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.342 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.327
0.342
0.356
0.369
wOBA
0.363
0.380
0.400
0.419
0.436
ISO
0.187
0.206
0.226
0.246
0.265
K%
18.3%
19.5%
20.9%
22.3%
23.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
80
+31 vs proj
Exit velocity88.9
59
Hard-hit%42.9%
67
+22 vs proj
xBA0.345
74
xSLG0.605
78
xwOBA0.368
92
+53 vs proj
BB%13.4%
91
+22 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
74
K%19.6%
68
+29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · LF
52
Arm Strength98.5 · LF
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Range Runs-1.4 · LF
31
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
52
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
53
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions71.3% · rebadged research
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.351 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
39
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
107 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.071 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.103 |
| Sample | 291 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 447 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.297 | 0.281 to 0.365 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.163 | 0.105 to 0.261 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% | 5.1% | 3.4% to 7.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.5% | 31.8% to 45.5% | +/- 6.9% |
| K% | 24.6% | 19.5% to 28.7% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 10.2% | 7.9% to 14.3% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.263 | 0.229 to 0.315 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
328 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1270 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 17.7% |
| BB% | 9.7% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |