Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Reynolds, Bryan
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PIT
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.337 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.370 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.355 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.326
0.340
0.355
0.371
0.385
wOBA
0.366
0.384
0.404
0.424
0.442
ISO
0.122
0.138
0.155
0.173
0.189
K%
20.0%
21.3%
22.7%
24.1%
25.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%16.3%
97
+56 vs proj
Barrel%5.1%
50
-16 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
64
Exit velocity91.3
87
Hard-hit%45.2%
72
K%21.4%
54
+18 vs proj
xBA0.352
76
xSLG0.595
73
xwOBA0.370
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · LF
48
Arm Strength93.9 · LF
66
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
3
Range Runs-3.5 · LF
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · LF
50
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
69
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.6% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions71.3% · rebadged research
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
29
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
159 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.033 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.067 |
| Sample | 276 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 606 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.337 | 0.296 to 0.391 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.112 to 0.247 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.4% to 8.5% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.0% | 41.0% to 52.7% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 24.6% | 20.1% to 29.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 6.4% to 11.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.311 | 0.274 to 0.363 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
1181 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.291 |
| K% | 21.5% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
vs RHP
2961 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.302 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |