Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Martin, Austin
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.319 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.290
0.304
0.319
0.335
0.349
wOBA
0.336
0.357
0.380
0.403
0.423
ISO
0.086
0.102
0.120
0.139
0.155
K%
12.6%
14.1%
15.7%
17.3%
18.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.2%
88
+45 vs proj
Barrel%2.0%
13
Bat speed65.8
10
Exit velocity86.1
23
Hard-hit%28.9%
11
-18 vs proj
K%15.2%
86
xBA0.313
38
xSLG0.429
23
xwOBA0.324
62
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · RF
72
Arm Strength87.8 · RF
18
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Range Runs0.7 · RF
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · RF
42
SB Success Rate77.8% · RF
42
Sprint Speed27.8 · RF
65
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.1% · rebadged research
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7% · rebadged research
73
Correct Decisions75.5% · rebadged research
98
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · borderline
8
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
34
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
23
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
34
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline115
98
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
137 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.061 |
| Sample | 204 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 323 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.318 | 0.283 to 0.363 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.129 | 0.089 to 0.214 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 1.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.3% | 31.1% to 43.5% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 15.9% | 13.4% to 23.9% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 6.0% to 11.8% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.265 to 0.344 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
146 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.218 |
| K% | 10.7% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |
vs RHP
323 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.204 |
| K% | 10.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |