Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Turang, Brice
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
70
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.318 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.336 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.331 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.310
0.320
0.331
0.341
0.351
wOBA
0.334
0.346
0.359
0.372
0.384
ISO
0.146
0.156
0.167
0.178
0.188
K%
21.9%
22.9%
24.0%
25.1%
26.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
49
+17 vs proj
Exit velocity89.0
63
Hard-hit%41.6%
65
+17 vs proj
xBA0.353
84
xSLG0.593
77
xwOBA0.336
82
BB%12.4%
89
+31 vs proj
Bat speed67.2
23
K%24.9%
38
-22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
45
Arm Strength87.1 · 2B
49
Outs Above Avg11.0 · 2B
98
Range Runs9.1 · 2B
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 2B
47
Bolts1.0 · 2B
12
SB Success Rate68.8% · 2B
24
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
83
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
37
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381 · validated
9
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
214 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 591 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 615 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.294 to 0.361 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.125 | 0.091 to 0.205 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.2% to 5.6% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.1% | 33.2% to 45.2% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 20.9% | 16.4% to 25.8% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 6.6% to 12.2% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.275 to 0.364 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
435 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
1429 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 17.5% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |