Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts
Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Rutschman, Adley
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.335 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.370 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.351 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Adley Rutschman's tools (88) outpace production (82) by 6 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.
Field-coordinate spray profile
135 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.035 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.051 |
| Sample | 192 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 458 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.335 | 0.293 to 0.380 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.156 | 0.104 to 0.218 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 5.3% | 3.4% to 7.6% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.2% | 34.0% to 45.8% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 17.2% | 13.5% to 22.0% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 10.0% | 7.6% to 13.2% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.250 to 0.326 | +/- 0.038 |
634 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.302 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 10.4% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
1615 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.284 |
| K% | 13.7% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |