Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026

Rutschman, Adley

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.340 xwOBA
Range
0.298 to 0.386
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced regular Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
62
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
63
Defense4 metrics
82
Speed1 metrics
24
Plate skills10 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
xwOBA preseason0.340
xwOBA current pace0.338
xwOBA rolling p500.339
Observed weight62%
xwOBA
0.313 0.325 0.339 0.352 0.365
wOBA
0.308 0.323 0.340 0.357 0.372
ISO
0.130 0.143 0.157 0.171 0.184
K%
13.7% 14.7% 15.9% 17.0% 18.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
54
Exit velocity88.7
60
Hard-hit%41.6%
65 +17 vs proj
xBA0.321
54
xSLG0.513
55
xwOBA0.338
83
BB%10.3%
71
Bat speed68.9
40
K%15.6%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.8 · C
79
Catcher Throwing3.7 · C
98
Framing Runs5.9 · C
95
Pop Time1.9 · C
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · C
24
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-02
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.9% · rebadged research
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6% · rebadged research
36
Correct Decisions66.3% · rebadged research
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
37
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
30
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.315 · validated
98
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Rutschman, Adley · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.338 2026-08-22: 0.3412026-08-23: 0.3412026-08-24: 0.3412026-08-25: 0.3402026-08-26: 0.3402026-08-27: 0.3402026-08-28: 0.3402026-08-29: 0.3402026-08-30: 0.3402026-08-31: 0.3382026-09-01: 0.3382026-09-02: 0.338 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Rutschman, Adley · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsPull 16%Center field third: 69% of plotted batted ballsCenter 69%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.2 / LA 81.02026-03-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 0.02026-03-18 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 14.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 49.02026-03-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 74.6 / LA 33.02026-03-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA 7.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 1.02026-03-19 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 95.4 / LA 13.02026-03-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 10.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 25.02026-03-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 34.02026-03-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 16.02026-03-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA -28.02026-03-26 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 21.02026-03-26 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -4.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 45.02026-03-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 14.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA 3.02026-03-29 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 21.02026-03-30 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 25.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 53.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 28.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 16.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -9.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 32.02026-04-03 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA -3.02026-04-03 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 18.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -48.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · popup · EV 78.2 / LA 69.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 34.02026-04-04 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -2.02026-04-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA -2.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 41.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 0.02026-04-08 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -11.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 54.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -11.02026-04-10 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 87.2 / LA 30.02026-04-10 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 68.1 / LA 16.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · popup · EV 89.8 / LA 64.02026-04-10 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 24.02026-04-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 28.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 20.02026-04-21 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 14.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 48.3 / LA -30.02026-04-24 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 31.02026-04-24 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 57.5 / LA -28.02026-04-24 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 33.02026-04-24 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 9.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 47.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.6 / LA 33.02026-04-25 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 1.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 9.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 53.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 54.02026-04-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA -2.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 43.6 / LA 7.02026-04-28 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 10.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.1 / LA 80.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 7.02026-04-30 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 1.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 49.02026-04-30 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 25.02026-04-30 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 10.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA 2.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · popup · EV 87.3 / LA 71.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.9 / LA -10.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -6.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 17.02026-05-02 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -1.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 48.3 / LA -67.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -1.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 83.0 / LA 36.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 30.02026-05-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.3 / LA 6.02026-05-04 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.6 / LA -3.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 30.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA 1.02026-05-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 75.9 / LA 18.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 31.02026-05-06 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 3.02026-05-06 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 13.02026-05-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 77.7 / LA 22.02026-05-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 32.02026-05-08 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 26.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA -8.02026-05-09 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 100.7 / LA 14.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 86.2 / LA 21.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 26.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 8.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 50.02026-05-11 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 7.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 25.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.1 / LA 13.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -28.02026-05-12 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 4.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · popup · EV 71.0 / LA 68.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 54.7 / LA 28.02026-05-13 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 37.02026-05-13 · sac fly · FF · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 15.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -25.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA -8.02026-05-15 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 22.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 71.8 / LA 16.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 43.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 5.02026-05-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 6.02026-05-18 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 29.02026-05-18 · field error · ST · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -3.02026-05-19 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 70.4 / LA 26.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 27.02026-05-19 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 6.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 35.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 20.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · popup · EV 71.5 / LA 52.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -1.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 27.02026-05-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.2 / LA -3.02026-05-22 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 25.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 52.0 / LA 61.02026-05-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 81.9 / LA 14.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 0.02026-05-24 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 38.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 42.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -26.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -2.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA -2.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 83.2 / LA 22.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 28.02026-05-27 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 18.02026-05-27 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 3.02026-05-27 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 91.2 / LA 11.02026-05-31 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 41.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 56.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 26.02026-06-04 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 91.2 / LA 16.02026-06-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA -5.02026-06-04 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 107.2 / LA 17.02026-06-04 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -20.02026-06-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 27.02026-06-05 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 12.02026-06-05 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 70.1 / LA 34.02026-06-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 95.6 / LA 21.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA -21.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.2 / LA 5.02026-06-07 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 91.5 / LA 10.02026-06-18 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -28.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 32.02026-07-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 15.02026-07-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.7 / LA -5.02026-08-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA -16.02026-08-11 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA -15.02026-08-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -3.02026-08-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 37.02026-08-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -14.02026-08-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 28.02026-08-17 · single · EP · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 13.02026-08-17 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 19.02026-08-17 · field error · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 25.02026-08-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 63.9 / LA 49.02026-08-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.3 / LA 79.02026-08-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 24.02026-08-21 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 7.02026-08-21 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 32.02026-08-21 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA -24.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 24.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -28.02026-08-22 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 45.02026-08-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 85.2 / LA -12.02026-08-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -16.02026-08-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 39.02026-08-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 39.2 / LA 31.02026-08-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA -4.02026-08-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 79.4 / LA 16.02026-08-29 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 74.1 / LA 39.02026-08-29 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 77.9 / LA 16.02026-08-29 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 26.02026-08-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA -38.02026-08-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.5 / LA -48.02026-08-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 1.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Rutschman, Adley · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 14%14%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 86%86%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.002
wOBA Δ+0.000
Sample358 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances458----
Home Runs13----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3400.298 to 0.386+/- 0.044
ISO0.1590.106 to 0.222+/- 0.058
Barrel%5.0%3.2% to 7.2%+/- 2.0%
Hard-Hit%38.2%34.0% to 45.8%+/- 5.9%
K%17.2%13.5% to 22.0%+/- 4.2%
BB%10.0%7.6% to 13.2%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.2830.259 to 0.337+/- 0.039
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

634 career PA

xwOBA0.302
K%12.2%
BB%10.4%
Barrel4.3%
vs RHP

1615 career PA

xwOBA0.284
K%13.7%
BB%9.2%
Barrel4.5%