Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / KC · 2026

Rojas, Josh

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.305 xwOBA
Range
0.238 to 0.338
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
10
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
20
Defense2 metrics
44
Speed2 metrics
16
Plate skills10 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
xwOBA preseason0.289
xwOBA current pace0.221
xwOBA rolling p500.267
Observed weight33%
xwOBA
0.229 0.247 0.267 0.286 0.304
wOBA
0.287 0.315 0.346 0.377 0.404
ISO
0.068 0.096 0.126 0.157 0.185
K%
17.9% 19.8% 22.0% 24.1% 26.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
20
Exit velocity84.5
15
Hard-hit%30.2%
17 -19 vs proj
xBA0.230
1
xSLG0.324
3
xwOBA0.221
3 -46 vs proj
BB%5.5%
17 -32 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
14
K%15.6%
87 +39 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.2 · 3B
42
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
46
Range Runs-1.1 · 3B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · 3B
11
Sprint Speed26.2 · 3B
22
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-05
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6% · rebadged research
28
Correct Decisions64.2% · rebadged research
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
36
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
67
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
20
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Rojas, Josh · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.221 2026-08-25: 0.2072026-08-26: 0.2072026-08-27: 0.2072026-08-28: 0.2132026-08-29: 0.2132026-08-30: 0.2192026-08-31: 0.2192026-09-01: 0.2192026-09-02: 0.2252026-09-03: 0.2252026-09-04: 0.2212026-09-05: 0.221 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

34 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Rojas, Josh · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 21% of plotted batted ballsPull 21%Center field third: 53% of plotted batted ballsCenter 53%Right field third: 26% of plotted batted ballsOppo 26% LF 330 CF 410 RF 330 2026-03-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 42.02026-03-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 27.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · popup · EV 60.8 / LA 72.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 24.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -16.02026-03-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 12.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA -5.02026-03-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 62.4 / LA -62.02026-06-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 1.02026-06-24 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 32.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 28.02026-06-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.9 / LA 14.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 34.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 26.02026-07-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -25.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 48.02026-08-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 68.02026-08-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 55.02026-08-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -3.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.2 / LA 69.02026-08-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA -4.02026-08-14 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.6 / LA 19.02026-08-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -19.02026-08-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -10.02026-08-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 58.02026-08-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 10.02026-08-29 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 30.02026-08-29 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 74.9 / LA 18.02026-09-01 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 2.02026-09-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 11.02026-09-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 27.02026-09-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -2.02026-09-03 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 43.02026-09-03 · field out · CU · popup · EV 86.8 / LA 68.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Rojas, Josh · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 31%31%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 92%92%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.229 vs 0.194 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.084
wOBA Δ+0.041
Sample109 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances356----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3050.238 to 0.338+/- 0.050
ISO0.1200.047 to 0.218+/- 0.085
Barrel%3.2%1.4% to 6.3%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%35.6%27.2% to 47.4%+/- 10.1%
K%23.2%19.0% to 30.5%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.3%6.1% to 11.7%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.2960.218 to 0.345+/- 0.063
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

526 career PA

xwOBA0.194
K%21.1%
BB%6.1%
Barrel1.8%
vs RHP

1912 career PA

xwOBA0.229
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Barrel2.8%