Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Kreidler, Ryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.252 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.296 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.270 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.219
0.243
0.270
0.297
0.322
wOBA
0.317
0.340
0.366
0.392
0.415
ISO
0.105
0.130
0.157
0.184
0.209
K%
15.1%
18.2%
21.7%
25.1%
28.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
50
Exit velocity87.2
39
Hard-hit%36.5%
37
xBA0.281
15
xSLG0.483
40
xwOBA0.296
39
+31 vs proj
BB%7.6%
37
Bat speed72.1
80
K%18.4%
73
+53 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
87
Arm Strength96.9 · SS
98
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
28
Range Runs0.5 · SS
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · SS
65
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.8% · rebadged research
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.4% · rebadged research
95
Correct Decisions75.7% · rebadged research
97
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
70
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
55
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
17
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.385 · validated
8
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
68 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.042 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.112 |
| Sample | 158 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 238 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.254 | 0.153 to 0.316 | +/- 0.082 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.054 to 0.225 | +/- 0.085 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 0.9% to 6.6% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.1% | 19.5% to 44.8% | +/- 12.6% |
| K% | 28.6% | 16.4% to 38.2% | +/- 10.9% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 3.4% to 12.4% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.271 | 0.178 to 0.341 | +/- 0.081 |
vs LHP
94 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.085 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |
vs RHP
199 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.080 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |