Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Kreidler, Ryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.252 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.338 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.272 |
| Observed weight | 23% |
xwOBA
0.206
0.237
0.272
0.306
0.337
wOBA
0.336
0.372
0.413
0.454
0.491
ISO
0.094
0.126
0.161
0.197
0.228
K%
15.2%
19.3%
23.7%
28.2%
32.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.1%
53
+16 vs proj
Barrel%4.5%
43
Bat speed70.6
67
Exit velocity87.7
40
Hard-hit%40.0%
49
+22 vs proj
K%22.7%
45
+27 vs proj
xBA0.342
67
xSLG0.636
82
xwOBA0.338
74
+65 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
20
Arm Runs0.2 · CF
Limited
Range Runs-0.7 · CF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · CF
65
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0% · rebadged research
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.5% · rebadged research
90
Correct Decisions73.4% · rebadged research
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
65
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
64
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
45
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
21
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380 · validated
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
42 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.083 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.159 |
| Sample | 66 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 238 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.254 | 0.153 to 0.316 | +/- 0.082 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.054 to 0.225 | +/- 0.085 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 0.9% to 6.6% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.1% | 19.5% to 44.8% | +/- 12.6% |
| K% | 28.6% | 16.4% to 38.2% | +/- 10.9% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 3.4% to 12.4% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.271 | 0.178 to 0.341 | +/- 0.081 |
vs LHP
94 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.085 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |
vs RHP
199 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.080 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |