Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026

Mitchell, Garrett

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.301 xwOBA
Range
0.218 to 0.342
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced regular Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
91
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
82
Defense4 metrics
69
Speed4 metrics
86
Plate skills10 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
xwOBA preseason0.289
xwOBA current pace0.348
xwOBA rolling p500.330
Observed weight68%
xwOBA
0.302 0.315 0.330 0.344 0.357
wOBA
0.322 0.336 0.350 0.365 0.379
ISO
0.119 0.133 0.148 0.164 0.178
K%
28.1% 29.5% 31.1% 32.6% 34.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
75 +32 vs proj
Exit velocity92.7
96
Hard-hit%51.5%
95 +50 vs proj
xBA0.406
98
xSLG0.685
93
xwOBA0.348
89 +43 vs proj
BB%11.4%
82 +22 vs proj
Bat speed75.6
98
K%31.9%
10
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.3 · CF
20
Arm Strength96.0 · CF
70
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
97
Range Runs5.2 · CF
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · CF
91
Bolts60.0 · CF
96
SB Success Rate83.3% · CF
59
Sprint Speed29.9 · CF
98
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-08-31
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
23
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Mitchell, Garrett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.304 0.348 2026-08-20: 0.3442026-08-21: 0.3442026-08-22: 0.3442026-08-23: 0.3442026-08-24: 0.3442026-08-25: 0.3492026-08-26: 0.3492026-08-27: 0.3482026-08-28: 0.3482026-08-29: 0.3482026-08-30: 0.3462026-08-31: 0.348 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Garrett Mitchell's tools (87) outpace production (62) by 26 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low
+14.0° Current 2° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

146 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Mitchell, Garrett · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 79% of plotted batted ballsCenter 79%Right field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsOppo 9% LF 344 CF 400 RF 345 2026-03-15 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 15.02026-03-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -9.02026-03-19 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -6.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -24.02026-03-21 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA -12.02026-03-23 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 108.4 / LA 11.02026-03-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -8.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 1.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -25.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 25.02026-03-26 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 28.6 / LA 8.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · popup · EV 77.4 / LA 84.02026-03-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA -16.02026-03-28 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 4.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.4 / LA -13.02026-04-01 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 112.6 / LA 4.02026-04-01 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 78.7 / LA 16.02026-04-04 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 25.02026-04-04 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 26.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 21.02026-04-04 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 23.02026-04-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 80.6 / LA -4.02026-04-06 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 55.4 / LA -71.02026-04-06 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 13.02026-04-08 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 109.0 / LA 16.02026-04-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA -1.02026-04-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 6.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 87.4 / LA 22.02026-04-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -26.02026-04-17 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 16.02026-04-17 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 52.8 / LA -59.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -4.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA 0.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -11.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.2 / LA 77.02026-04-21 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 13.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.3 / LA -40.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA -32.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 6.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 6.02026-04-25 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 63.2 / LA -26.02026-04-25 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -28.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.4 / LA 65.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 38.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.2 / LA -35.02026-04-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA -1.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · popup · EV 49.8 / LA 78.02026-04-30 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA -33.02026-04-30 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 1.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.3 / LA 32.02026-05-01 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 21.02026-05-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -25.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -28.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 35.02026-05-02 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 17.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -2.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA -49.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 1.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -16.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 16.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 50.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA -4.02026-05-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.6 / LA 0.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 44.02026-05-09 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 11.02026-05-10 · sac fly · SL · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 20.02026-05-10 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 4.02026-05-12 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 8.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -34.02026-05-14 · fielders choice out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.8 / LA -26.02026-05-14 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 24.02026-05-14 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.0 / LA -31.02026-05-14 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 34.02026-05-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.9 / LA 5.02026-05-17 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 115.5 / LA 20.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 42.02026-05-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 1.02026-05-19 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -16.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -9.02026-05-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -25.02026-05-20 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -6.02026-05-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 94.2 / LA 5.02026-05-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 21.02026-05-25 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -8.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA -45.02026-05-26 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 27.02026-05-27 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 15.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 36.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -20.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -7.02026-06-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 1.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 10.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -1.02026-06-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -4.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -31.02026-06-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 21.02026-06-07 · triple · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 26.02026-06-07 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 23.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA -30.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 86.7 / LA 12.02026-06-22 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 4.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 34.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -19.02026-06-24 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 88.8 / LA 15.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -16.02026-06-26 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 35.02026-06-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.1 / LA -4.02026-06-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 69.8 / LA 21.02026-07-01 · triple · SL · line_drive · EV 106.0 / LA 15.02026-07-01 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 21.02026-07-01 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 16.02026-07-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -5.02026-07-27 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 109.7 / LA -8.02026-07-27 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -9.02026-07-31 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 111.3 / LA 7.02026-07-31 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 109.9 / LA 21.02026-07-31 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 109.2 / LA 18.02026-08-02 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.5 / LA -26.02026-08-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 59.6 / LA -82.02026-08-04 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA -11.02026-08-05 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -12.02026-08-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -27.02026-08-07 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -17.02026-08-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -27.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 63.3 / LA 8.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.2 / LA 14.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 57.02026-08-08 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -45.02026-08-11 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA 1.02026-08-11 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -59.02026-08-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 10.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.2 / LA 68.02026-08-13 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 35.02026-08-13 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 51.5 / LA -83.02026-08-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.7 / LA -55.02026-08-26 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 13.02026-08-26 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 2.02026-08-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA 9.02026-08-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -5.02026-08-29 · fielders choice · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA -19.02026-08-30 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -8.02026-08-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -8.02026-08-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 7.02026-08-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.7 / LA 13.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Mitchell, Garrett · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 76.5 mph Hard swing rate 73% Whiff / swing 46% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Mitchell, Garrett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 22%22%Whiff: 34%34%Zone contact: 76%76%Contact: 66%66%Hard hit: 52%52% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.047
wOBA Δ+0.049
Sample473 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances275----
Home Runs9----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3010.218 to 0.342+/- 0.062
ISO0.1570.071 to 0.234+/- 0.081
Barrel%4.5%1.7% to 6.8%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%37.7%29.0% to 49.0%+/- 10.0%
K%27.9%21.7% to 36.2%+/- 7.3%
BB%9.3%4.8% to 11.8%+/- 3.5%
BABIP0.3060.195 to 0.367+/- 0.086
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

99 career PA

xwOBA0.163
K%19.0%
BB%5.3%
Barrel1.9%
vs RHP

431 career PA

xwOBA0.185
K%19.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel2.7%