Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Mitchell, Garrett
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.325 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.306 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.268
0.286
0.306
0.326
0.344
wOBA
0.302
0.323
0.345
0.368
0.389
ISO
0.094
0.115
0.139
0.163
0.184
K%
29.1%
31.2%
33.5%
35.8%
37.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.6%
90
+33 vs proj
Barrel%6.0%
63
+22 vs proj
Bat speed74.6
96
Exit velocity92.2
91
Hard-hit%50.5%
91
+51 vs proj
K%38.2%
1
-22 vs proj
xBA0.387
93
xSLG0.696
91
xwOBA0.325
63
+23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.3 · CF
3
Arm Strength96.0 · CF
79
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs1.8 · CF
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · CF
78
Bolts15.0 · CF
84
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
35
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
98
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.6% · rebadged research
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
75
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
62
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
92 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.044 |
| Sample | 199 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 275 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.218 to 0.342 | +/- 0.062 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.071 to 0.234 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 1.7% to 6.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.7% | 29.0% to 49.0% | +/- 10.0% |
| K% | 27.9% | 21.7% to 36.2% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 4.8% to 11.8% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.306 | 0.195 to 0.367 | +/- 0.086 |
vs LHP
99 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.163 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |
vs RHP
431 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.185 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |