Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Melendez, Mj
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYM
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.271 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.287 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
xwOBA
0.241
0.263
0.287
0.311
0.332
wOBA
0.256
0.284
0.317
0.349
0.378
ISO
0.118
0.145
0.176
0.206
0.233
K%
24.7%
27.3%
30.2%
33.1%
35.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.5%
60
Barrel%6.3%
68
Bat speed72.6
85
Exit velocity92.8
94
Hard-hit%55.3%
97
K%34.7%
3
-17 vs proj
xBA0.267
10
xSLG0.531
56
xwOBA0.271
16
-31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Arm Runs1.7 · LF
Limited
Range Runs-0.5 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · DH
39
SB Success Rate0.0% · DH
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9% · rebadged research
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research
77
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
49
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
66
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
34
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324 · validated
80
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
71
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
45 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.036 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 95 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 292 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.245 to 0.365 | +/- 0.060 |
| ISO | 0.203 | 0.115 to 0.274 | +/- 0.080 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 3.3% to 9.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.2% | 39.1% to 56.7% | +/- 8.8% |
| K% | 28.1% | 21.6% to 36.5% | +/- 7.4% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 4.6% to 11.9% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.262 | 0.189 to 0.318 | +/- 0.065 |
vs LHP
376 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.217 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
1377 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |