Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Melendez, Mj
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYM
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 28
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
59
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.281 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.288 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.248
0.267
0.288
0.310
0.329
wOBA
0.253
0.276
0.302
0.327
0.351
ISO
0.117
0.141
0.168
0.194
0.218
K%
25.8%
28.2%
30.7%
33.3%
35.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
56
-15 vs proj
Exit velocity93.6
97
Hard-hit%55.6%
98
xBA0.285
18
xSLG0.543
62
xwOBA0.281
24
-25 vs proj
BB%11.7%
82
+33 vs proj
Bat speed72.2
81
K%34.5%
5
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Arm Runs1.5 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.3 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · DH
44
SB Success Rate0.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7% · rebadged research
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
71
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
30
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
86
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
39
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
91
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
56 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| Sample | 145 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 292 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.245 to 0.365 | +/- 0.060 |
| ISO | 0.203 | 0.115 to 0.274 | +/- 0.080 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 3.3% to 9.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.2% | 39.1% to 56.7% | +/- 8.8% |
| K% | 28.1% | 21.6% to 36.5% | +/- 7.4% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 4.6% to 11.9% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.262 | 0.189 to 0.319 | +/- 0.065 |
vs LHP
376 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.217 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
1377 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |