Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.260 vs 0.228 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Stowers, Kyle
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team MIA
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.304 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.313 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.283
0.297
0.313
0.329
0.343
wOBA
0.269
0.291
0.316
0.341
0.364
ISO
0.123
0.142
0.163
0.184
0.203
K%
23.6%
25.4%
27.3%
29.3%
31.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
50
Barrel%3.8%
31
-50 vs proj
Bat speed72.6
85
Exit velocity91.1
85
Hard-hit%51.5%
93
K%28.0%
21
xBA0.350
75
xSLG0.547
62
xwOBA0.304
44
-17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
29
Arm Strength93.9 · LF
66
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Range Runs0.4 · LF
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.3 · LF
24
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.8% · rebadged research
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.2% · rebadged research
93
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
63
Resists FastballwOBA 0.297 · validated
98
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
55
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
92 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| Sample | 157 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 465 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.287 to 0.365 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.186 | 0.130 to 0.257 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 7.8% | 5.5% to 10.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.0% | 39.4% to 52.0% | +/- 6.3% |
| K% | 27.4% | 22.4% to 33.4% | +/- 5.5% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 6.8% to 11.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.302 | 0.249 to 0.355 | +/- 0.053 |
vs LHP
178 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.228 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
707 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |