Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026

Murphy, Sean

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.313 xwOBA
Range
0.274 to 0.371
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced regular Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
45
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
39
Defense3 metrics
50
Speed1 metrics
11
Plate skills10 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
xwOBA preseason0.315
xwOBA current pace0.264
xwOBA rolling p500.303
Observed weight23%
xwOBA
0.262 0.282 0.303 0.324 0.344
wOBA
0.253 0.288 0.327 0.365 0.400
ISO
0.109 0.137 0.169 0.200 0.229
K%
23.6% 25.8% 28.3% 30.8% 33.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
45 -20 vs proj
Exit velocity86.2
31
Hard-hit%38.5%
50
xBA0.331
64
xSLG0.547
64
xwOBA0.264
15 -44 vs proj
BB%6.1%
22 -38 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
57
K%34.8%
4 -20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.8 · C
76
Catcher Throwing-0.4 · C
43
Framing Runs-1.2 · C
32
Pop Time2.0 · C
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
11
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-03
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.6% · rebadged research
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 38.5% · rebadged research
2
Correct Decisions59.6% · rebadged research
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
46
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
54
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline79
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

5 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Murphy, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.264 2026-08-30: 0.2212026-08-31: 0.2452026-09-01: 0.2522026-09-02: 0.2522026-09-03: 0.264 2026-08-30 2026-09-03 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

27 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Murphy, Sean · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 78% of plotted batted ballsCenter 78%Right field third: 7% of plotted batted ballsOppo 7% LF 335 CF 400 RF 325 2026-05-04 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 2.02026-05-06 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 13.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -39.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 49.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 38.5 / LA -10.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -37.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 61.02026-05-10 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.9 / LA -24.02026-08-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 31.02026-08-05 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -4.02026-08-07 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -13.02026-08-07 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 8.02026-08-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 63.7 / LA 43.02026-08-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 65.4 / LA -34.02026-08-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -13.02026-08-23 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 91.8 / LA 10.02026-08-23 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 43.9 / LA -41.02026-08-23 · field out · FC · popup · EV 82.5 / LA 75.02026-08-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 45.6 / LA -64.02026-08-26 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 34.02026-08-26 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 25.02026-08-30 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -18.02026-08-30 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 27.02026-08-31 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.2 / LA 27.02026-09-02 · single · FA · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 4.02026-09-02 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 36.02026-09-02 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 9.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Murphy, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 36%36%Whiff: 32%32%Zone contact: 80%80%Contact: 68%68%Hard hit: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.049
wOBA Δ+0.013
Sample66 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances396----
Home Runs17----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3130.274 to 0.371+/- 0.049
ISO0.1680.128 to 0.279+/- 0.075
Barrel%5.9%4.4% to 9.2%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%40.6%35.5% to 49.6%+/- 7.1%
K%28.0%21.7% to 33.1%+/- 5.7%
BB%9.3%6.4% to 12.9%+/- 3.3%
BABIP0.2580.205 to 0.306+/- 0.051
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

685 career PA

xwOBA0.272
K%21.9%
BB%9.2%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHP

1747 career PA

xwOBA0.252
K%20.2%
BB%7.5%
Barrel5.5%