Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Murphy, Sean
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.133 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 6% |
xwOBA
0.258
0.279
0.304
0.328
0.350
wOBA
0.000
0.020
0.064
0.108
0.148
ISO
0.080
0.113
0.151
0.188
0.222
K%
21.9%
24.5%
27.4%
30.2%
32.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.2 · C
Limited
Catcher Throwing-0.1 · C
Limited
Framing Runs-1.2 · C
Limited
Pop Time1.9 · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 45.8% · rebadged research
2
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 45.0% · rebadged research
1
Correct Decisions50.0% · rebadged research
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
85
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline68
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
197 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 396 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.313 | 0.274 to 0.371 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.168 | 0.128 to 0.279 | +/- 0.075 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.4% to 9.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.6% | 35.5% to 49.6% | +/- 7.1% |
| K% | 28.0% | 21.7% to 33.1% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 6.4% to 12.9% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.258 | 0.205 to 0.306 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
685 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.272 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |
vs RHP
1747 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 20.2% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |