Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

Wells, Austin

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.311 xwOBA
Range
0.272 to 0.367
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced regular Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-16
57
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
58
Defense4 metrics
58
Speed1 metrics
18
Plate skills10 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
49
Exit velocity88.8
61
Hard-hit%44.0%
78
xBA0.310
39
xSLG0.534
60
xwOBA0.304
54
BB%11.7%
86
Bat speed70.7
68
K%26.3%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.3 · C
93
Catcher Throwing-1.9 · C
14
Framing Runs6.6 · C
97
Pop Time2.0 · C
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
18
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-10-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4% · rebadged research
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research
59
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · borderline
99
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · insufficient sample
95
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
39
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
43
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
66
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Wells, Austin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.301 0.304 2026-10-05: 0.3022026-10-06: 0.3032026-10-07: 0.3042026-10-08: 0.3032026-10-09: 0.3032026-10-10: 0.3032026-10-11: 0.3032026-10-12: 0.3042026-10-13: 0.3042026-10-14: 0.3042026-10-15: 0.3042026-10-16: 0.304 2026-10-05 2026-10-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Austin Wells's tools (75) outpace production (52) by 23 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach; Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

177 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Wells, Austin · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 63% of plotted batted ballsCenter 63%Right field third: 23% of plotted batted ballsOppo 23% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 38.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -33.02026-03-21 · sac bunt · SI · ground_ball · EV 45.7 / LA -43.02026-03-21 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 26.02026-03-23 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA -4.02026-03-23 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 19.02026-03-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 26.02026-03-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -1.02026-03-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 88.2 / LA 15.02026-03-27 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 5.02026-03-27 · fielders choice out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -9.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA -2.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 55.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 56.7 / LA -24.02026-04-01 · grounded into double play · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -22.02026-04-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA -7.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 50.02026-04-04 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 19.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 12.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 28.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -45.02026-04-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.5 / LA 13.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -2.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 1.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 33.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · popup · EV 70.0 / LA 56.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 98.1 / LA 59.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -23.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 60.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 1.02026-04-11 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 26.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 49.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 55.02026-04-13 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -7.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -5.02026-04-14 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 12.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -2.02026-04-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 28.6 / LA -18.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 53.0 / LA -62.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 2.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 35.02026-04-19 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 26.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 55.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 17.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · LA -53.02026-04-21 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 36.02026-04-21 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 85.1 / LA 18.02026-04-22 · field out · CU · popup · EV 75.0 / LA 86.02026-04-22 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -11.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 55.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 41.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -39.02026-04-25 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 33.02026-04-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -3.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 3.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 85.4 / LA 24.02026-04-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 58.9 / LA -9.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 37.02026-04-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA 6.02026-04-28 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 31.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -8.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.3 / LA 71.02026-05-01 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 68.4 / LA 30.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA -17.02026-05-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -3.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 32.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 27.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 39.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 65.7 / LA 7.02026-05-06 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 38.02026-05-06 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 79.3 / LA 19.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 58.7 / LA 4.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.8 / LA 73.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -20.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.4 / LA 75.02026-05-11 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 32.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 70.1 / LA 42.02026-05-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 10.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 38.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 29.02026-05-16 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 5.02026-05-17 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -1.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.8 / LA -60.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 61.8 / LA -18.02026-05-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 23.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 15.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · popup · EV 67.8 / LA 53.02026-05-24 · field out · CU · popup · EV 81.0 / LA 74.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 51.02026-05-24 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -24.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · popup · EV 86.5 / LA 68.02026-05-26 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 31.02026-05-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 11.02026-05-26 · single · EP · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 12.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 58.7 / LA 12.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 18.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 29.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.1 / LA 45.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 76.9 / LA 28.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 4.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 65.8 / LA 56.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -16.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 9.02026-08-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 41.02026-08-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -18.02026-08-05 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA -26.02026-08-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 14.02026-08-07 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 18.02026-08-07 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 32.02026-08-08 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 19.02026-08-11 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 53.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -6.02026-08-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.2 / LA -8.02026-08-14 · field out · SI · popup · EV 40.9 / LA 58.02026-08-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA -5.02026-08-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 3.02026-08-15 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA -1.02026-08-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -24.02026-08-19 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 82.1 / LA 25.02026-08-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -4.02026-08-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 42.02026-08-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 30.1 / LA 39.02026-08-21 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 46.02026-08-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 14.02026-08-23 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 13.02026-08-26 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 19.02026-08-26 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 13.02026-08-29 · single · SI · popup · EV 58.2 / LA 44.02026-08-29 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 49.02026-08-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 1.02026-08-29 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 62.02026-08-30 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 29.02026-08-30 · home run · FC · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 22.02026-08-30 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 28.02026-08-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 39.02026-08-31 · field out · SL · popup · EV 83.6 / LA 61.02026-09-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 14.02026-09-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 20.02026-09-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -4.02026-09-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -5.02026-09-02 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 10.02026-09-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 35.02026-09-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 56.02026-09-05 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 5.02026-09-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.6 / LA 11.02026-09-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 26.02026-09-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 44.02026-09-09 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 73.2 / LA -27.02026-09-09 · field out · ST · popup · EV 56.1 / LA 86.02026-09-10 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -18.02026-09-11 · field out · CH · popup · EV 83.0 / LA 64.02026-09-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA -10.02026-09-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 20.02026-09-12 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 51.02026-09-12 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 38.02026-09-13 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 39.02026-09-18 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 78.7 / LA 50.02026-09-18 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 13.02026-09-20 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 84.5 / LA 18.02026-09-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 24.02026-09-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.3 / LA -2.02026-09-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.5 / LA -49.02026-09-29 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 29.02026-09-29 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA 15.02026-09-29 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.1 / LA 81.02026-09-29 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 8.02026-09-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 3.02026-09-30 · sac fly · CH · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 22.02026-09-30 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -6.02026-09-30 · field out · SI · popup · EV 83.9 / LA 65.02026-10-03 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 11.02026-10-03 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 19.02026-10-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 20.02026-10-07 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.4 / LA -13.02026-10-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 37.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Wells, Austin · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 73.5 mph Hard swing rate 26% Whiff / swing 24% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Wells, Austin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 26%26%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 74%74%Hard hit: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.258 vs 0.224 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ--
wOBA Δ--
Sample418 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances496----
Home Runs20----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3110.272 to 0.367+/- 0.047
ISO0.1650.117 to 0.248+/- 0.066
Barrel%5.9%4.3% to 9.0%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%42.4%36.9% to 49.8%+/- 6.4%
K%22.9%19.2% to 29.1%+/- 5.0%
BB%8.5%5.9% to 12.1%+/- 3.1%
BABIP0.2690.211 to 0.301+/- 0.045
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

254 career PA

xwOBA0.224
K%20.7%
BB%6.0%
Barrel3.9%
vs RHP

814 career PA

xwOBA0.258
K%18.7%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.2%