Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.258 vs 0.224 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Wells, Austin
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.293
0.311
0.328
0.344
wOBA
0.238
0.259
0.282
0.305
0.326
ISO
0.098
0.116
0.137
0.157
0.176
K%
21.5%
23.1%
24.9%
26.7%
28.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%14.1%
92
+49 vs proj
Barrel%4.1%
37
-25 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
63
Exit velocity89.3
59
Hard-hit%47.0%
80
+19 vs proj
K%25.9%
31
xBA0.315
41
xSLG0.526
54
xwOBA0.309
50
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
67
Catcher Throwing-0.2 · C
33
Framing Runs3.9 · C
95
Pop Time2.0 · C
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.5 · C
11
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4% · rebadged research
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions68.3% · rebadged research
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · insufficient sample
95
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
86
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
36
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
99 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.029 |
| Sample | 170 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 496 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.272 to 0.367 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.165 | 0.117 to 0.248 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.3% to 9.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.4% | 36.9% to 49.8% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 22.9% | 19.2% to 29.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 5.9% to 12.1% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.211 to 0.301 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
254 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.224 |
| K% | 20.7% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
814 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |