Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Edwards, Xavier
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.302 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.353 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.330 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.303
0.316
0.330
0.344
0.357
wOBA
0.369
0.387
0.407
0.428
0.446
ISO
0.118
0.132
0.149
0.165
0.180
K%
10.7%
11.8%
13.1%
14.3%
15.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.6%
78
+37 vs proj
Barrel%4.9%
47
+39 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
10
Exit velocity86.8
30
Hard-hit%32.7%
22
K%11.6%
94
xBA0.325
53
xSLG0.497
46
xwOBA0.353
82
+41 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.5 · 2B
5
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs2.0 · 2B
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · 2B
88
Bolts1.0 · 2B
17
SB Success Rate85.7% · 2B
66
Sprint Speed28.1 · 2B
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.3% · rebadged research
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions68.0% · rebadged research
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
85
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
35
Resists FastballwOBA 0.414 · validated
1
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
35
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
199 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.053 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.107 |
| Sample | 267 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 552 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.261 to 0.340 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.089 | 0.065 to 0.182 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 1.4% | 0.3% to 3.7% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 27.3% | 24.2% to 36.5% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 13.6% | 12.0% to 20.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.0% to 11.8% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.324 | 0.291 to 0.382 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
317 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |
vs RHP
725 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 11.8% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |