Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Edwards, Xavier
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
28
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.302 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.313 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.289
0.299
0.310
0.321
0.331
wOBA
0.319
0.331
0.345
0.358
0.370
ISO
0.085
0.094
0.104
0.115
0.124
K%
12.1%
12.9%
13.8%
14.8%
15.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.4%
15
Exit velocity85.4
22
Hard-hit%28.6%
13
xBA0.308
38
xSLG0.426
22
xwOBA0.313
60
BB%11.1%
79
+32 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
10
K%13.5%
93
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.5 · 2B
3
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 2B
10
Range Runs-2.7 · 2B
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · 2B
79
Bolts7.0 · 2B
55
SB Success Rate78.9% · 2B
44
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
76
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5% · rebadged research
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.410 · validated
1
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
72
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
37
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
24
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
61
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
298 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.044 |
| Sample | 586 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 552 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.261 to 0.340 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.089 | 0.065 to 0.182 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 1.4% | 0.3% to 3.7% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 27.3% | 24.2% to 36.5% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 13.6% | 12.0% to 20.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.0% to 11.8% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.324 | 0.291 to 0.382 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
317 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |
vs RHP
725 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 11.8% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |