Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026

Burger, Jake

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.320 xwOBA
Range
0.299 to 0.364
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Impact slugger Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
74
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
68
Defense2 metrics
52
Speed2 metrics
38
Plate skills10 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
xwOBA preseason0.317
xwOBA current pace0.311
xwOBA rolling p500.312
Observed weight71%
xwOBA
0.292 0.302 0.312 0.323 0.333
wOBA
0.309 0.322 0.336 0.349 0.362
ISO
0.168 0.179 0.192 0.204 0.215
K%
23.9% 25.0% 26.2% 27.4% 28.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
83
Exit velocity90.2
80
Hard-hit%47.2%
87
xBA0.329
62
xSLG0.589
76
xwOBA0.311
57
BB%7.9%
41 +24 vs proj
Bat speed73.9
93
K%26.5%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
47
Range Runs0.2 · 1B
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
28
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
47
SB Success Rate66.7% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-08-31
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.319 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
62
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.392 · validated
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Burger, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.304 0.311 2026-08-20: 0.3042026-08-21: 0.3042026-08-22: 0.3042026-08-23: 0.3042026-08-24: 0.3042026-08-25: 0.3052026-08-26: 0.3052026-08-27: 0.3132026-08-28: 0.3132026-08-29: 0.3132026-08-30: 0.3122026-08-31: 0.311 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Burger's tools (95) outpace production (85) by 10 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

220 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Burger, Jake · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsPull 20%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsOppo 10% LF 329 CF 407 RF 326 2026-03-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.7 / LA 21.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 17.02026-03-16 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 92.3 / LA 19.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.3 / LA -52.02026-03-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 47.6 / LA -17.02026-03-18 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 110.7 / LA 3.02026-03-20 · field out · CH · popup · EV 85.6 / LA 73.02026-03-20 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 25.02026-03-23 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA -15.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 51.02026-03-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 113.0 / LA 9.02026-03-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 17.02026-03-26 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 108.1 / LA 21.02026-03-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.4 / LA -7.02026-03-26 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 66.9 / LA 40.02026-03-28 · home run · KC · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 22.02026-03-28 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -16.02026-03-29 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA 7.02026-03-30 · fielders choice · CU · ground_ball · EV 53.8 / LA -62.02026-03-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.9 / LA 12.02026-03-30 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.3 / LA -21.02026-03-30 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 12.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 57.02026-03-31 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 65.3 / LA 24.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 33.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -3.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA -5.02026-04-03 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.4 / LA -5.02026-04-03 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 104.2 / LA 16.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA -17.02026-04-04 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 12.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -32.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 39.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -9.02026-04-05 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 22.02026-04-06 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -5.02026-04-06 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 18.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 1.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -13.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -8.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -4.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 33.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -16.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 32.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 18.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA -15.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 36.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 98.6 / LA 20.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA -4.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA -17.02026-04-11 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.4 / LA -30.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 62.1 / LA -23.02026-04-12 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 62.4 / LA 30.02026-04-13 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 113.6 / LA 21.02026-04-13 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA -20.02026-04-13 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 24.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -9.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 16.02026-04-14 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 78.5 / LA 12.02026-04-15 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 29.02026-04-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 9.02026-04-16 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA -18.02026-04-16 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 34.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.4 / LA 74.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 50.3 / LA -72.02026-04-17 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 11.02026-04-17 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 109.8 / LA 12.02026-04-17 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 1.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 55.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.2 / LA -7.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · popup · EV 78.7 / LA 66.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 57.7 / LA -8.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 4.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 3.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 40.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -9.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.9 / LA -15.02026-04-22 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 75.3 / LA 14.02026-04-23 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 53.3 / LA 16.02026-04-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 50.02026-04-23 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 38.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.2 / LA -14.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 57.7 / LA -45.02026-04-24 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -1.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -17.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 39.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 40.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 26.02026-04-26 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 16.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 49.6 / LA 48.02026-04-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -7.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 59.02026-04-28 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 45.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 30.02026-04-29 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 42.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -20.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 60.4 / LA 80.02026-05-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 6.02026-05-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.4 / LA 10.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -23.02026-05-02 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 26.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · popup · EV 83.0 / LA 68.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA -2.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 22.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -23.02026-05-05 · field out · FS · popup · EV 61.4 / LA 65.02026-05-05 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA -4.02026-05-05 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA -3.02026-05-06 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 83.2 / LA 17.02026-05-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 109.1 / LA 12.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -1.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -20.02026-05-07 · force out · ST · popup · EV 71.7 / LA 61.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.2 / LA 68.02026-05-07 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA 8.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 15.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 56.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 34.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · popup · EV 95.1 / LA 66.02026-05-11 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.9 / LA -20.02026-05-11 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 71.7 / LA 24.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 8.02026-05-12 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 84.9 / LA 20.02026-05-13 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 35.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 32.02026-05-13 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 80.9 / LA 15.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -7.02026-05-16 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -35.02026-05-16 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -39.02026-05-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 27.02026-05-17 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 6.02026-05-17 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA -1.02026-05-18 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.6 / LA 29.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.9 / LA 46.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 32.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.4 / LA -13.02026-05-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 6.02026-05-19 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 87.9 / LA 15.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -3.02026-05-20 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 108.4 / LA 27.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 110.4 / LA -1.02026-05-20 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA -5.02026-05-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 110.9 / LA -8.02026-05-22 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 20.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · popup · EV 68.6 / LA 62.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 46.02026-05-24 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 30.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 40.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 55.02026-05-26 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 69.1 / LA -10.02026-05-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 110.0 / LA -3.02026-05-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 52.9 / LA -67.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 109.1 / LA 19.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 92.1 / LA 10.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 76.2 / LA 27.02026-05-31 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 13.02026-06-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 46.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 26.02026-06-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA -30.02026-06-05 · field out · CU · popup · EV 75.9 / LA 76.02026-06-07 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 75.6 / LA 7.02026-06-07 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 59.6 / LA -54.02026-06-07 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 68.2 / LA 26.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 36.02026-06-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 61.7 / LA -29.02026-06-15 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 6.02026-06-18 · field out · SL · popup · EV 93.1 / LA 63.02026-06-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 7.02026-06-20 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 32.02026-06-22 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 111.4 / LA 6.02026-06-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 43.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 72.3 / LA 67.02026-06-24 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -5.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA -25.02026-06-30 · field out · FC · popup · EV 92.6 / LA 66.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 7.02026-06-30 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 39.02026-06-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.1 / LA -16.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 61.9 / LA -29.02026-07-01 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 38.02026-07-27 · home run · ST · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 21.02026-07-27 · field out · SI · popup · EV 88.1 / LA 77.02026-07-31 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -23.02026-07-31 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -1.02026-07-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 74.5 / LA 71.02026-08-02 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.3 / LA 11.02026-08-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA -23.02026-08-04 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 112.9 / LA 12.02026-08-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 9.02026-08-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 33.02026-08-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA -25.02026-08-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 40.02026-08-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 54.8 / LA -58.02026-08-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -51.02026-08-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 37.02026-08-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 29.02026-08-14 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 27.02026-08-14 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 28.02026-08-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA -19.02026-08-15 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 0.02026-08-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.2 / LA 12.02026-08-16 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 68.3 / LA 45.02026-08-16 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 88.4 / LA -4.02026-08-16 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 24.02026-08-21 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 76.1 / LA 16.02026-08-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 69.6 / LA 76.02026-08-23 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -22.02026-08-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 32.02026-08-24 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 12.02026-08-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.5 / LA 21.02026-08-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 35.02026-08-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA -38.02026-08-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -25.02026-08-29 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 4.02026-08-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA -28.02026-08-30 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA -2.02026-08-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA -23.02026-08-30 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 36.02026-08-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA -18.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Burger, Jake · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 74.2 mph Hard swing rate 44% Whiff / swing 28% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Burger, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 36%36%Whiff: 32%32%Zone contact: 82%82%Contact: 68%68%Hard hit: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.010
wOBA Δ+0.015
Sample535 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances460----
Home Runs22----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3200.299 to 0.364+/- 0.032
ISO0.1930.144 to 0.266+/- 0.061
Barrel%8.2%5.9% to 10.7%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%47.2%42.1% to 54.5%+/- 6.2%
K%24.8%21.4% to 31.9%+/- 5.2%
BB%5.4%3.5% to 8.0%+/- 2.2%
BABIP0.2850.236 to 0.332+/- 0.048
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

510 career PA

xwOBA0.280
K%20.0%
BB%4.7%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHP

1305 career PA

xwOBA0.268
K%22.6%
BB%3.7%
Barrel7.4%