Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Allen, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
10
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.265 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.252 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.259 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.223
0.240
0.259
0.278
0.295
wOBA
0.298
0.321
0.346
0.372
0.395
ISO
0.052
0.071
0.092
0.113
0.132
K%
18.8%
20.2%
21.8%
23.4%
24.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.3%
5
Exit velocity82.4
7
Hard-hit%27.8%
10
xBA0.292
22
xSLG0.364
6
xwOBA0.252
11
BB%6.4%
26
Bat speed65.2
8
K%19.7%
68
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
62
Arm Strength87.7 · SS
55
Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS
84
Range Runs-0.8 · SS
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · SS
35
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
38
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
47
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
53
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
65
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
73 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.085 |
| Sample | 157 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 431 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.261 | 0.235 to 0.341 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.056 | 0.036 to 0.167 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.4% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 22.0% | 17.8% to 35.6% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 20.9% | 19.2% to 27.7% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 4.4% to 9.5% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.274 | 0.232 to 0.335 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
371 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.203 |
| K% | 14.8% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |
vs RHP
896 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.186 |
| K% | 16.6% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |