Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Allen, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.265 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.257 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.263 |
| Observed weight | 23% |
xwOBA
0.220
0.240
0.263
0.286
0.306
wOBA
0.286
0.322
0.362
0.401
0.437
ISO
0.041
0.065
0.093
0.120
0.144
K%
18.2%
19.8%
21.7%
23.6%
25.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.0%
20
Barrel%0.0%
1
Bat speed64.9
6
Exit velocity82.6
6
Hard-hit%29.4%
11
K%16.4%
82
+24 vs proj
xBA0.287
20
xSLG0.349
6
xwOBA0.257
10
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.7 · SS
68
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
71
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
Limited
Range Runs-0.3 · SS
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · SS
47
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.8% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research
63
Correct Decisions74.5% · rebadged research
97
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
54
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
61
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
45 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.101 |
| Sample | 67 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 431 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.261 | 0.235 to 0.341 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.056 | 0.036 to 0.167 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.4% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 22.0% | 17.8% to 35.6% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 20.9% | 19.2% to 27.7% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 4.4% to 9.5% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.274 | 0.232 to 0.335 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
371 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.203 |
| K% | 14.8% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |
vs RHP
896 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.186 |
| K% | 16.6% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |