Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SF · 2026
Schmitt, Casey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SF
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
84
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.361 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.343 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.319
0.331
0.343
0.356
0.367
wOBA
0.328
0.343
0.359
0.376
0.391
ISO
0.168
0.183
0.199
0.216
0.231
K%
18.2%
19.3%
20.4%
21.6%
22.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
91
+37 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
74
Hard-hit%44.7%
75
+21 vs proj
xBA0.368
88
xSLG0.655
88
xwOBA0.361
89
+38 vs proj
BB%3.1%
5
-16 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
K%19.0%
70
+29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
46
Arm Strength89.5 · LF
19
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs1.7 · LF
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · LF
44
SB Success Rate85.7% · LF
67
Sprint Speed28.1 · LF
70
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · borderline
16
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
24
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.345 · validated thin sample
0
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324 · validated
78
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
192 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.052 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.051 |
| Sample | 385 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 389 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.309 | 0.282 to 0.358 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.155 | 0.097 to 0.244 | +/- 0.073 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 2.8% to 7.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.0% | 35.3% to 48.1% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 24.0% | 19.7% to 27.8% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 5.4% to 9.3% | +/- 2.0% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.236 to 0.329 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
296 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
481 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 17.3% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |