Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.266 vs 0.225 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Smith, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.300 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.294
0.308
0.322
0.335
wOBA
0.270
0.295
0.323
0.351
0.376
ISO
0.071
0.088
0.106
0.124
0.140
K%
17.2%
18.7%
20.5%
22.2%
23.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.3%
88
+41 vs proj
Barrel%3.1%
25
Bat speed66.6
18
Exit velocity86.4
26
Hard-hit%36.9%
37
K%19.5%
64
xBA0.287
21
xSLG0.422
21
xwOBA0.300
40
-15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength79.5 · 2B
10
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
15
Range Runs-1.7 · 2B
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · 2B
50
SB Success Rate66.7% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
62
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
22
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
23
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
91
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
84 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.014 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| Sample | 128 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 553 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.292 to 0.350 | +/- 0.029 |
| ISO | 0.125 | 0.106 to 0.213 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 2.5% to 6.2% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.1% | 32.2% to 43.1% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 19.5% | 17.1% to 26.1% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 7.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.272 to 0.339 | +/- 0.034 |
vs LHP
358 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |
vs RHP
1365 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 15.4% |
| BB% | 7.8% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |