Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.266 vs 0.225 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Smith, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
21
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.280 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.299 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.274
0.286
0.299
0.313
0.325
wOBA
0.273
0.296
0.321
0.346
0.368
ISO
0.083
0.098
0.115
0.133
0.148
K%
17.3%
18.8%
20.4%
22.1%
23.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
32
Exit velocity85.8
24
Hard-hit%32.4%
22
xBA0.272
10
xSLG0.415
17
xwOBA0.280
24
-35 vs proj
BB%10.8%
74
+20 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
12
K%19.6%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
64
Arm Strength79.5 · 2B
6
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
43
Range Runs-2.0 · 2B
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · 2B
61
SB Success Rate66.7% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
70
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
22
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
86
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
51
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
89 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.034 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| Sample | 158 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 553 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.292 to 0.350 | +/- 0.029 |
| ISO | 0.125 | 0.106 to 0.213 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 2.5% to 6.2% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.1% | 32.2% to 43.1% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 19.5% | 17.1% to 26.1% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 7.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.272 to 0.339 | +/- 0.034 |
vs LHP
358 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |
vs RHP
1365 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 15.4% |
| BB% | 7.8% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |