Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Alvarez, Yordan
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team HOU
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.391 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.493 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.448 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.416
0.431
0.448
0.464
0.480
wOBA
0.421
0.439
0.460
0.480
0.498
ISO
0.224
0.246
0.269
0.293
0.315
K%
15.7%
17.2%
18.8%
20.5%
21.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%14.2%
92
+18 vs proj
Barrel%12.4%
98
Bat speed74.9
98
Exit velocity94.7
99
Hard-hit%53.4%
95
K%19.3%
66
xBA0.441
100
xSLG0.965
100
xwOBA0.493
100
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
Limited
Range Runs-1.1 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · DH
8
Sprint Speed24.7 · DH
3
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9% · rebadged research
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.341 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.410 · validated
1
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377 · validated
13
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
170 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.102 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.068 |
| Sample | 275 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 371 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.392 | 0.333 to 0.438 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.219 | 0.145 to 0.328 | +/- 0.091 |
| Barrel% | 9.3% | 6.8% to 12.3% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 50.2% | 41.4% to 56.2% | +/- 7.4% |
| K% | 18.0% | 13.7% to 25.6% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 11.2% | 9.0% to 14.4% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.311 | 0.261 to 0.355 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1118 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.325 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |
vs RHP
2102 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.344 |
| K% | 13.0% |
| BB% | 11.2% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |