Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / STL · 2026

Herrera, Iván

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.351 xwOBA
Range
0.324 to 0.383
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Balanced regular Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.354
xwOBA current pace0.368
xwOBA rolling p500.361
Observed weight55%
xwOBA
0.337 0.348 0.361 0.374 0.386
wOBA
0.349 0.367 0.387 0.407 0.425
ISO
0.138 0.153 0.169 0.185 0.200
K%
15.3% 16.5% 17.9% 19.2% 20.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.8%
85 +32 vs proj
Barrel%5.3%
53
Bat speed72.2
80
Exit velocity89.6
63
Hard-hit%43.0%
63
K%17.3%
78
xBA0.346
71
xSLG0.544
61
xwOBA0.368
86
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
60
Catcher Throwing-1.3 · C
3
Framing Runs-0.8 · C
38
Pop Time2.0 · C
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · DH
6
Sprint Speed25.5 · DH
11
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions67.3% · rebadged research
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
24
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.320 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
20
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.382 · validated
8
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Herrera, Iván · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3612026-05-19: 0.3592026-05-21: 0.3572026-05-23: 0.3612026-05-24: 0.3662026-05-25: 0.3662026-05-26: 0.3622026-05-28: 0.3642026-05-29: 0.3642026-05-30: 0.3642026-05-31: 0.3682026-06-01: 0.368 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Iván Herrera's tools (80) outpace production (69) by 11 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

169 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Herrera, Iván · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 73% of plotted batted ballsCenter 73%Right field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsOppo 14% LF 336 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-18 · field out · CU · popup · EV 77.7 / LA 62.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · popup · EV 85.3 / LA 65.02026-03-20 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 24.02026-03-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 27.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.4 / LA 55.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 66.9 / LA 74.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 45.7 / LA -16.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA -10.02026-03-26 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 33.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 65.2 / LA -45.02026-03-26 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -22.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 19.02026-03-28 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 25.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -16.02026-03-29 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -1.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 18.02026-03-29 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 50.0 / LA -33.02026-03-29 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.4 / LA 46.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 13.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.7 / LA -37.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · popup · EV 71.6 / LA 60.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 79.5 / LA -33.02026-03-30 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 110.0 / LA 9.02026-03-31 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 17.02026-04-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 12.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -22.02026-04-03 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 3.02026-04-03 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 3.02026-04-04 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 11.02026-04-04 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.3 / LA 6.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -2.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · popup · EV 66.4 / LA 63.02026-04-05 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 93.4 / LA 11.02026-04-06 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 32.02026-04-06 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 4.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 2.02026-04-07 · field out · KC · popup · EV 61.4 / LA 37.02026-04-07 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 85.8 / LA 10.02026-04-07 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.2 / LA -33.02026-04-07 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 3.02026-04-08 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 15.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.5 / LA -9.02026-04-10 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 17.02026-04-11 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -1.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 17.02026-04-11 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -27.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 6.02026-04-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 2.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -43.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -4.02026-04-13 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -19.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -23.02026-04-13 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 16.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · popup · EV 96.2 / LA 65.02026-04-14 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA -13.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.7 / LA -2.02026-04-14 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 29.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 56.0 / LA 77.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 27.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 30.02026-04-17 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 30.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 43.02026-04-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 12.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.4 / LA 67.02026-04-18 · double · KC · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -24.02026-04-19 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA -5.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -2.02026-04-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 9.02026-04-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -10.02026-04-20 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 8.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 57.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -15.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 44.02026-04-21 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 72.6 / LA 37.02026-04-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 21.02026-04-22 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 49.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 31.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.6 / LA -12.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 43.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 47.7 / LA -71.02026-04-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.2 / LA -2.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 65.1 / LA 37.02026-04-25 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 23.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 46.02026-04-26 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 8.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.1 / LA 73.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -30.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 43.02026-04-28 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 112.3 / LA 3.02026-04-29 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 86.8 / LA 12.02026-04-29 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -4.02026-04-29 · field out · ST · popup · EV 70.8 / LA 61.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 40.02026-04-30 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -26.02026-05-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 1.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 1.02026-05-01 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA -1.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -15.02026-05-02 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 7.02026-05-03 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA -12.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.4 / LA -8.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -45.02026-05-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 9.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · popup · EV 58.9 / LA 73.02026-05-04 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 20.02026-05-06 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -29.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 44.02026-05-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 47.9 / LA -66.02026-05-08 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -2.02026-05-08 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -18.02026-05-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 82.2 / LA 19.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA -21.02026-05-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.4 / LA 14.02026-05-09 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 16.02026-05-09 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 31.02026-05-09 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 89.8 / LA 15.02026-05-10 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 75.5 / LA 1.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 63.9 / LA -74.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA -12.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.4 / LA -18.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA -10.02026-05-12 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 8.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 19.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · popup · EV 84.1 / LA 63.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -40.02026-05-13 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 21.02026-05-13 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.4 / LA -4.02026-05-13 · sac fly · ST · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 18.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA -45.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 65.5 / LA 17.02026-05-14 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -12.02026-05-14 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA -5.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.4 / LA 36.02026-05-15 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 83.8 / LA 17.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 75.0 / LA -20.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 15.02026-05-16 · double · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 27.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 71.8 / LA 68.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -35.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA -20.02026-05-17 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 6.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -2.02026-05-17 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -31.02026-05-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA -23.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · popup · EV 90.0 / LA 67.02026-05-19 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 24.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 20.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 72.3 / LA 36.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -8.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.5 / LA 7.02026-05-21 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 19.02026-05-21 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 23.02026-05-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 5.02026-05-23 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -2.02026-05-23 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.5 / LA -26.02026-05-23 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 68.1 / LA 29.02026-05-23 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball2026-05-23 · triple · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 26.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 33.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · LA -70.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 5.02026-05-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -2.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -65.02026-05-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 92.3 / LA 12.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA -14.02026-05-31 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 5.02026-05-31 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 22.02026-05-31 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 11.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Herrera, Iván · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 29.8° Length 7.9 ft Ideal path 49% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Herrera, Iván · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 8.6° Direction -4.0° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Herrera, Iván · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 74.1 mph Hard swing rate 44% Whiff / swing 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Herrera, Iván · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.303 vs 0.268 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.016
wOBA Δ+0.036
Sample266 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances462----
Home Runs15----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3510.324 to 0.383+/- 0.029
ISO0.1580.116 to 0.232+/- 0.058
Barrel%6.2%4.4% to 8.7%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%44.7%41.8% to 50.9%+/- 4.5%
K%18.9%15.5% to 24.3%+/- 4.4%
BB%9.0%7.4% to 12.3%+/- 2.5%
BABIP0.3190.285 to 0.351+/- 0.033
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

237 career PA

xwOBA0.303
K%13.8%
BB%9.1%
Barrel6.4%
vs RHP

582 career PA

xwOBA0.268
K%14.7%
BB%6.8%
Barrel4.6%