Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Freeman, Tyler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.325 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.301
0.313
0.328
0.342
0.355
wOBA
0.289
0.312
0.338
0.364
0.387
ISO
0.085
0.103
0.123
0.143
0.162
K%
9.1%
10.5%
12.1%
13.6%
15.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.9%
8
-22 vs proj
Barrel%0.7%
4
-17 vs proj
Bat speed66.1
13
Exit velocity83.6
8
Hard-hit%30.8%
16
-23 vs proj
K%11.2%
96
xBA0.321
47
xSLG0.421
21
xwOBA0.325
64
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · RF
76
Arm Strength94.1 · RF
68
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-0.3 · RF
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · RF
2
SB Success Rate60.0% · RF
14
Sprint Speed27.5 · RF
56
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.4% · rebadged research
49
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4% · rebadged research
21
Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
39
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333 · validated
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
113 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| Sample | 152 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 467 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.300 to 0.363 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.119 | 0.086 to 0.209 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 2.6% | 1.4% to 5.1% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.2% | 32.9% to 45.8% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 12.7% | 10.2% to 19.1% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 5.6% to 10.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.243 to 0.313 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
384 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 10.2% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
758 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 10.3% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |