Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.271 vs 0.232 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Butler, Lawrence
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
66
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.320 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.301
0.311
0.323
0.334
0.345
wOBA
0.306
0.319
0.334
0.349
0.363
ISO
0.135
0.147
0.160
0.174
0.186
K%
23.1%
24.3%
25.7%
27.1%
28.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity89.0
63
Hard-hit%45.4%
81
xBA0.341
74
xSLG0.540
62
xwOBA0.320
69
BB%12.3%
88
+34 vs proj
Bat speed71.7
77
K%26.0%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · RF
16
Arm Strength93.3 · RF
49
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-8.7 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.2 · RF
11
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
67
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
33
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.3% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions71.6% · rebadged research
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
49
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
51
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.311 · validated
99
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
172 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 447 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 572 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 21 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.324 | 0.297 to 0.362 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.130 to 0.256 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.3% to 8.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.1% | 40.0% to 51.6% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 24.2% | 19.5% to 31.3% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 6.7% to 11.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.248 to 0.338 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
246 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 25.5% |
| BB% | 4.9% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
1013 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 20.8% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |