Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.300 vs 0.268 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Harris II, Michael
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.341 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.391 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.367 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.340
0.353
0.367
0.381
0.394
wOBA
0.346
0.365
0.387
0.408
0.427
ISO
0.150
0.166
0.183
0.200
0.215
K%
16.1%
17.4%
18.7%
20.1%
21.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.3%
9
Barrel%11.9%
98
+21 vs proj
Bat speed73.3
91
Exit velocity92.5
92
Hard-hit%54.7%
97
+21 vs proj
K%17.9%
76
xBA0.383
92
xSLG0.711
92
xwOBA0.391
95
+21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · CF
67
Arm Strength92.6 · CF
55
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs2.6 · CF
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.4 · CF
53
SB Success Rate50.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.5% · rebadged research
5
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research
33
Correct Decisions58.8% · rebadged research
6
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
9
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · insufficient sample
91
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
37
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
167 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.053 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.048 |
| Sample | 235 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 582 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.338 | 0.315 to 0.385 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.117 to 0.230 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 4.9% to 9.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.2% | 41.9% to 52.6% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 18.8% | 15.9% to 24.2% | +/- 4.1% |
| BB% | 4.2% | 2.5% to 7.0% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.305 | 0.274 to 0.353 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
632 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 17.5% |
| BB% | 2.7% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |
vs RHP
1594 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.300 |
| K% | 16.1% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |